Today we have the release of the Non-Farm Payroll report. Arguably the biggest event on the calendar, this indicator marks the level of new job creation in the U.S. We have seen some encouraging results recently in private sector employment but with the NFP containing the more volatile, non-cyclical public sector/governmental jobs, results can surprise. Nonetheless, expectations are that the result today will be positive.
Investor Notes: Non-Farm Payroll, 1230 GMT.
- ADP Private Payrolls significantly outstripped expectations, posting a figure of 281,000 new jobs, up from 179,000 last month.
- Consumer confidence rose by 2.2 points in June and consumer confidence and positive employment data tend to coincide.
- The U.S. unemployment rate is set to stay at 6.3%.
- Some mixed results in the Manufacturing sector cast some doubt, with ISM PMI dipping slightly from 55.4 to 55.3 and whilst the employment index in Philly Fed index rose, it fell for the Empire State index.
- Yet, there is some optimism that factory payrolls will have increased for June and the consensus forecast for NFP payrolls today is 214,000 new jobs.
- Banc De Binary analysts predict that the NFP report will be positive today, indicating a potential upward movement in the USD/JPY.