Oil:
Oil closed on Friday at $96 a barrel after a flat trading session which revised near term expectations for a $100 a barrel break.
It is trading in a slim range between $95 and $97 a barrel, thanks to the steady balance between all the factors that influence the commodity’s price. Current statements from the financial arena are making a slight impression compared with geopolitical news such as tensions from Iran and the latest tropical storm expected in the US, which may damage oil output.
The publication of the durable goods orders yesterday, showing a rise of 4.2%, is a good example of how the markets are largely indifferent to financial news for future demand for oil.
Publication of jobless claims later this week may revise this approach and influence the price oil greatly, especially in the midst of Bernanke’s meeting with central bankers at Jackson Hole.
Gold:
Gold closed on Friday just below $1669 an ounce and has created a strong trading range between $1660 and $1673 an ounce.
It will be a big surprise if this range is broken strongly before data about unemployment claims in the US and first day of Jackson Hole, both on Thursday.
Technical analysis in this slim range is well intact and supply levels are very strong. The next resistance at $1678 will likely be challenged only by bad financial results which would trigger more expectations for ease to the global economy by the US and Europe.
In the short term, unemployment claims on Thursday will impact the price of gold and may even challenge its $1700 an ounce barrier which has been seen since April his year.