Just as we predicted when the Cypriot bail-in debacle was in full swing a few months ago, it seems that Cyprus was indeed the test case for an EU-wide model of dealing with failed banks. We can’t possibly take all the credit for the accuracy of our assessment, especially when on the 25th of March Eurogroup president, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, accidentally likened the Cypriot bailout negotiations to a “template” that could be used again in other future bailout situations. A frenzy of back-peddling via Twitter ensued, with Dijsselbloem spinning his template remark into a “tailor made” case in which “no models or templates” were used.

Cut to the 21st of June, where finance ministers are due to meet in Luxembourg in order to agree upon a unified way of dealing with failed banking institutions. With a third of the EU’s economic output since the 2008 crash having been spent on saving failing banks, clearly a set of measures is needed to safeguard the future of the union, and these measures are starting to look suspiciously like what took place in Cyprus in March.

“The costs of future restructurings can’t be wished away,” a senior EU official commented, “We need a mechanism to shift the burden away from taxpayers.”

The main solution up for discussion proposes that in the case of future bank failures the first to be affected should be shareholders in the bank in question, then bondholders and finally depositors with more than 100,000 euros in their accounts. Sound familiar? And are we the only ones to observe that this proposal certainly does hit taxpayers, albeit those with more liquid capital.

The proposed measures are likely to divide Europe’s leaders, with both France and the United Kingdom having voiced their resistance to putting a mechanism in place that cedes the final word to Brussels. On the other end Germany is demanding that such a framework be put in place and uniformly applied throughout the 27 EU member states before the 60 billion euros earmarked for the European Stability Mechanism is made available.

We will keep you informed as the story develops but it certainly seems that a bail-in/out à la Cyprus could be coming to an imploding banking sector near you.