Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:
Main Trading Event Of The Day: U.S. Pending Home Sales @ 14.00 GMT
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY
Investors Look To U.S. On Europe Concerns
As the prospect of tougher sanctions against Russia impacts on confidence in Europe, investors will be looking to the United States and China to underpin the global economy. Wednesday’s U.S. GDP reading and jobs data on Friday will help markets assess the strength of the economy’s rebound and the speed of the Federal Reserve’s return to more conventional monetary policy. In Europe, the downing of a Malaysia Airlines airliner over the Ukraine has left countries such as Germany with little choice but to change their long-passive stance and impose tougher sanctions on Moscow. European Union ambassadors are expected to meet early this week to finalise sanctions that could include closing EU capital markets to state-owned Russian banks, placing an embargo on arms sales and restricting supply of energy technology. Globally, such sanctions would hurt Europe hardest, where Russia does most trade, compounding economic problems for Russia and throughout the region. The International Monetary Fund has already flagged the ‘chilling effect’ on investment in Russia of sanctions as it pared back its forecast for global economic growth last week. Confidence amongst businesses in Germany, which accounts for more than one quarter of all exports across the European Union, has dipped further since the plane crash. The crisis comes at a delicate moment for the 18 countries using the euro, where a fledgling recovery is losing pace. Investors will get a snapshot of the bloc’s inflation rate, which has sunk well below the European Central Bank’s target on Thursday.
Dollar Index Holds Close To Six Month Peak
The U.S. dollar hovered near six month highs against a basket of major currencies on Monday, holding onto solid gains made last week as investors turned bearish on the euro. This was ahead of key U.S. economic data later this week and a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting ending on Wednesday which market-watchers believe is likely to culminate in the same dovish message from Chair Janet Yellen.
The Commerce Department is expected to report on Wednesday that the economy grew at a 3.2 percent annual pace in the second quarter, after it shrank 2.9 percent in the previous quarter. On Friday, the Labor Department’s non-farm payrolls are expected to show a rise of 231,000 in July after they increased 288,000 in June. The jobless rate is expected to hold steady at 6.1 percent. Yellen said this month that the Fed could raise rates sooner than initially expected if labour markets continued to improve. Still, most economists expect the U.S. central bank to start raising interest rates in the second half of 2015. The dollar index was steady at 81.045, after it peaked at 81.084 on Friday, a high not seen since early February. So far this month, it has rallied around 1.6 percent, on track for its best monthly gain since January. Against its Japanese counterpart, the dollar was steady at 101.81 yen.
WTI Crude Declines In Advance Of U.S. Data
West Texas Intermediate crude fell for the fourth time in five days amid speculation that forthcoming economic data may signal a slowdown in growth in the U.S. Brent also dropped in London. Futures declined as much as 0.6 percent in New York. A preliminary index of U.S. service industries is forecast at 59.8 for July, the lowest level in three months. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to review monetary policy at a two-day meeting starting tomorrow. WTI for September delivery fell as much as 59 cents to $101.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange to $101.59. The contract gained 2 cents to $102.09 on July 25. The volume of all futures traded was about 18 percent below the 100-day average. Prices are down 3.6 percent in July, the most in eight months. Brent for September settlement lost as much as 60 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $107.79 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $6.29 to WTI. The spread closed at $6.30 on July 25, the widest since July 7.
That sums up today’s highlights! We hope you have a profitable day on the markets.