Tag Archives: USD/Yen

Dollar Holds Longest Yen Gains Since 2005 Following U.S. GDP

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

Dollar Holds Longest Yen Gains Since 2005 Following U.S. GDP

There are clear signs that the U.S. economy is strengthening as the dollar headed for its biggest monthly gain versus the euro since February last year. The dollar has risen versus all except one of its 16 major counterparts in July as reports have shown gross domestic product rebounded, consumer confidence improved and durable goods orders increased. Economists predict that NFP data tomorrow will reveal that employers added more than 200,000 jobs for a sixth month. The dollar was little changed at $1.3396 per euro having advanced 2.2 percent this month. It appreciated to $1.3367 yesterday, the strongest since Nov. 12. The U.S. currency traded at 102.78 yen from 102.79 in New York, having risen for the previous nine trading days.

So far, the Fed has nevertheless given no signs of being in a hurry to raise interest rates. Yesterday, it delivered a slightly more upbeat assessment on the economy and scaled back its monthly bond-buying program by another $10 billion in a widely expected move. Traders expect markets to now take stock of the overnight moves and wait for the next batch of key data including U.S. non-farm payrolls tomorrow.

U.S. Stocks Higher As Fed Calms Rate-Hike Fears

U.S. stocks ended a choppy session slightly higher, as the Federal Reserve appeared to ease fears that it will start raising interest rates sooner than anticipated. Following yesterday’s FOMC meeting, the Fed said the economy is improving but emphasised that significant slack remains in the labour market. The central bank gave no hint of timing of the first rate hike and repeated that it expects that to come a considerable time after the end of its bond-buying program. The S&P 500 closed up less than a point at 1,970.08. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished off session lows, but with a loss of 31.75 points to 16,880.36. The Nasdaq Composite added 20.20 points to 4,462.90. Tech stocks shone amid a buying frenzy in Twitter after the social media network’s results exceeded forecasts. Its shares leapt 22% as analysts moved up price targets in the wake of blowout results. European stocks closed mostly lower, while in other markets crude oil and gold both lost ground.

Gold Stays Below $1,300 On U.S. Economic Optimism

Gold held overnight losses to trade below $1,300 an ounce today and looked likely to extend declines to a fourth day as optimism over U.S. economic growth curbed safe-haven appetite for the metal. Spot gold was flat at $1,295.20 an ounce after dropping 0.3 percent in the previous session. If U.S. data continues to beat expectations, the metal will come under further long liquidation. According to some analysts, gold is poised to break support at $1,292 and fall further to $1,284, as indicated by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci projection analysis.

That sums up today’s highlights! Remember to keep in touch via our Facebook, Twitter, Google+ and LinkedIn pages for all the latest trading developments. We hope you have a profitable day on the markets.

Will Today’s FOMC Minutes Move The Markets?

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:

Main Trading Event Of The Day: USD FOMC Meeting Minutes @ 18.00 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

Will Today’s FOMC Minutes Move The Markets?

The Fed is due to release minutes of its March 18-19 meeting today at which it reduced the monthly pace of bond buying by $10 billion to $55 billion. Whether they reveal anything new or just nuance, the minutes from the Fed’s last meeting will be a major highlight of the trading week. Traders are watching to see if the minutes take on a more hawkish tone, particularly after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that the Fed could start raising short-term interest rates about six months after ending its bond-buying program, expected in the fall. The Fed dropped part of its statement that linked raising rates to an unemployment threshold of 6.5 percent. Unemployment was at 6.7 percent in March. FOMC minutes are known to move markets even when they really provide little new information.

The dollar was at $1.3708 per euro today after strengthening 0.3 percent last week to $1.3705. The yen added 0.2 percent to 103.08 per dollar, extending a 0.6 percent advance on April 4. It gained 0.2 percent to 141.30 per euro, following a 0.7 percent jump at the end of last week to 141.54. Stocks rose slightly Tuesday, with the Dow gaining 10 to 16,256 and the S&P 500 up 6 at 1,851. The Nasdaq rose 33 points or 0.8 percent, to 4,112.

FOMC Meeting Minutes @ 18.00 GMT

Dollar Down, Yen Up As BOJ Dampens Stimulus Hopes

The dollar hovered at three-week lows against major currencies today, having broken decisively lower as the yen squeezed higher and the euro gained a tailwind. The moves were sparked partly by yesterday’s comments from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda who said there was no need for additional stimulus to escape years of debilitating deflation whilst adding that the world’s third-largest economy can ride out the impact of a sales tax rise. Recent remarks from European Central Bank officials have also suggested no urgency for any immediate policy action. The dollar fell more than 1 percent against the yen in its biggest one-day drop in over seven months to 101.55. It has since drifted back up to 101.91. The euro climbed as far as $1.3812, pulling further away from Friday’s trough of $1.3672. The dollar also slid on a raft of emerging market currencies where investors have been wagering massively on dollar strength that has not materialised, forcing a bailout of long positions. In contrast, the Japanese currency gained ground on the euro, the Australian dollar and many other currencies as well, as investors rushed to cover bearish positions.

China Commodity Demand Not Peaking

China’s economic deceleration has shaken commodity markets, however, according to the International Monetary Fund, its demand for commodities is a long way off peaking and does not mean that its rebalancing away from an investment-led economic model will lead to a decline in consumption of commodities. Observing growth trajectories in China, South Korea and Japan, the fund found that China’s per capita gross domestic product would need to double before that started to happen. Instead, the IMF points out that the composition of Chinese demand for commodities is likely to shift. As Beijing moves to shut down unprofitable steel factories, growth in demand for iron ore and copper should moderate. China is still importing iron ore at record levels but these imports are expected to grow at a slower pace from now on. Concerns over China demand partly explain why iron prices have fallen 12% since the start of 2014. By comparison, the fund said, Chinese demand for high-grade metals like aluminum is likely to prove more resilient in years ahead. The fund also anticipates other commodities will do well as incomes in China rise: high-protein foods and zinc. Losers could include rice, copper and eventually coal.

That sums up today’s highlights! We hope you have a profitable day on the markets.

Just A Minute!

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the markets.

Main Trading Events Of The Day: Several today including USD Non-Farm Employment Change @ 13.30, USD Trade Balance @ 13.30 & USD Employment Rate @ 13.30 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls: Gains In Job Growth Expected

Stock markets are ready for a soft jobs report due later today. Data is expected to show that employers in the U.S. hired more workers in February than a month earlier, indicating that companies were confident that demand will bounce back from a weather-induced slowdown. Payrolls increased 149,000 last month after a 113,000 gain in January, according to a Bloomberg survey ahead of figures from the Labor Department. The jobless rate held at 6.6 percent, the lowest since 2008, the survey also showed.

Even with last month’s pickup, job gains remain smaller than those seen for most of last year as the harsh weather conditions across the eastern U.S. slow consumer spending, housing and manufacturing. The Federal Reserve is trying to determine how much of the recent cooling has been due to weather, which means the outlook for monetary policy may not become clearer until March data becomes available but analysts believe that the weather is not the only factor behind the lull in activity - businesses are working through a large amount of unsold goods accumulated in the second half of 2013, which means they have no incentive to place new orders with manufacturers.

The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, is set for its biggest weekly gain in three months versus the yen before the release of U.S. payrolls data, with Federal Reserve officials reiterating the threshold for changing its stimulus tapering is high. The U.S. currency yesterday was at its strongest versus the yen since January as reports showed fewer Americans filed claims for jobless benefits. The dollar was little changed at 102.97 yen, from 103.07 yen yesterday, and has climbed 1.2 percent this week, the biggest advance since the period ended Nov. 29.

Meanwhile, Gold traded near the highest level in more than four months and headed for a fifth weekly advance before U.S. payrolls data. Gold rose 1.8 percent this week and closed at $1,350.02 an ounce yesterday, when prices rose 1 percent on expectations that U.S. borrowing costs will hold at a record low and European inflation will gradually accelerate. The metal reached $1,354.87 on March 3, the highest since Oct. 30, as tension between Ukraine and Russia escalated.

U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change @ 13.30 GMT.

What Is The Impact Of The Ukraine Crisis For Investors?

The recent Russia/Ukraine situation has caused some pronounced unrest in the currency markets, as well as a sharp selloff in the Russian equity market. Should investors be worried and is the safety trade the best trade? Much of this depends on whether Western influence can stop Russia invading. It is unlikely that the United States can stop Putin, but it can make it very uncomfortable for him to proceed. It is worth remembering that Russia has major pipelines running through Ukraine that deliver natural gas to the rest of Europe. Mistreating Ukraine to the point that it shuts down those pipelines would be economically devastating to Russia. It is unlikely that Ukraine will mount any meaningful military resistance to Russia simply because Ukraine is effectively broke. The Ukrainians cannot finance a war as they teeter on the edge of bankruptcy. What will punish Russia significantly will likely be the damage to asset prices that will be the consequence of investment funds leaving the country. Russia was forced to raise its overnight lending rate by 1.5 percent to defend the value of the ruble.

What does this mean for investors? Should investors be pulling up stakes in Russia and repatriating their funds home? Probably not, when you take into consideration what matters to Russia. First, oil is of great importance. Russia is one of the top producers of oil, and rising prices for crude means better revenues for Russia. Gold also matters to Russia. Russia is sensitive to the price of gold and other metals. Rising gold prices benefit Russia’s miners. The reality is that Russia likely will benefit from any spikes in commodity prices that these events cause. Russia’s markets are down significantly here and many believe they should be bought. With regard to equity prices, these are mainly dependent on earnings growth. Analysts believe that none of the events in Ukraine or Russia are likely have any impact on the earnings of companies here or in Russia. Earnings are expected to continue rising, and sooner or later the uncertainty in Russia will dissipate. Those investors who buy during the days of bad news will likely be winners once the political unrest blows over.

That sums up today’s highlights! We hope you have a profitable day on the markets.

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