Tag Archives: U.S. Jobs

Coming Up…U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:

Main Trading Event Of The Day: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls @ 12.30 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

U.S. Job Growth May Be Slowing But Expected To Remain Solid In July

With NFP data due today, U.S. job growth is likely to have cooled slightly in July but should retain enough momentum to suggest the economy remains solid. Non-farm payrolls are expected to have increased by 233,000, a pull back from June’s 288,000 job gain and the monthly average of 272,000 jobs added in the second quarter. It would still, however, mark the sixth straight month that employment has expanded by more than 200,000 jobs, a stretch not seen since 1997. The unemployment rate likely held at a six year-low of 6.1 percent, but could surprise on the downside after surveys showed Americans becoming more upbeat about jobs. The economy grew at a 4.0 percent annual pace in the second quarter after shrinking at a 2.1 percent rate in the first three months of year. While restocking by businesses lifted the figure, growth is seen remaining sturdy for the rest of 2014. The Labor Department will release its employment report, which is closely watched by financial markets around the globe, at 12:30 GMT today. It is set to muster even more attention in the months ahead, as investors seek to gauge when the Federal Reserve is likely to raise benchmark interest rates from near zero, where they have been since December 2008. Fed officials on Wednesday acknowledged that labour market conditions were improving, but that significant slack remained, signaling patience on the rate front. Most economists look for the first increase in the second quarter of next year.The Labour Department will release its employment report, which is closely watched by financial markets around the globe, at 12:30 GMT today.

Dollar Pauses Near Highs Ahead Of Employment Data

Dollar bulls took a step back today ahead of a closely watched jobs report that has the potential to make or break a rally that saw the dollar post its best monthly performance in over a year. The dollar index was steady at 81.449 .DXY having risen 2.1 percent in July to a 10-1/2 month peak of 81.573. The dollar bought 102.78 yen after peaking at a four-month high of 103.15. The question now is whether this is the beginning of a continuing uptrend, one that has frustrated dollar bulls for much of this year or just another false start. The U.S. jobs report due today could provide a clue. With the Federal Reserve not providing any real hints as to when interest rates will rise, markets are looking more and more to economic data to make their own bets. The euro, meanwhile, traded at $1.3389 EUR steadying near a nine-month trough of $1.3366 plumbed earlier in the week. Working against the common currency was data that showed annual inflation in the euro zone fell in July to its lowest since the height of the financial crisis in 2009. This should keep the risk of deflation on policymakers’ radar, although it is unlikely to spur the European Central Bank into immediate policy action when it meets next week.

Market Volatility? Keep Calm And Carry On…

Equity markets have entered a period of increased volatility amid growing uncertainty over the timing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike but the message from analysts to retail investors is to keep calm and carry on. The short-term spikes in volatility we have been experiencing could lead to a couple of down days and although volatility is trending higher, it does not mean the equity market will go down. The CBOE Volatility Index, which shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility, spiked 27 percent to 16.95 on Thursday, its highest level since April 11, but below the historical average of 20. The move came as the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 1.9 percent, erasing its gains for the year, and the S&P 500 dropped 2 percent. The U.S. economy expanded at an impressive 4 percent annual rate in the second quarter as activity picked up broadly after shrinking at a revised 2.1 percent pace in the first three months of the year. Furthermore, there are more signs of an improving labour market. With the economy getting stronger, this has fuelled concerns that the Fed may hike rates sooner rather than later.

That sums up today’s highlights! Keep tuned in for all the latest trading news via our social platform and don’t forget to watch closely for today’s NFP data!

We hope you have a profitable day on the markets.

Jobs Help Seal U.S. Spring Rebound

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:

Main Trading Event Of The Day: U.S. ISM Manufacturing @ 14.00 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

Jobs Help Seal US Spring Rebound

The United States has finally consigned its weather-beaten start to the year to history this week as jobs data is expected to show a strong end to the second quarter. The U.S. economy contracted at a 2.9 percent annual rate, the sharpest decline in five years, in the first quarter of this year. An extremely severe winter, the expiration of long-term unemployment benefits and a notable slowdown in restocking by businesses combined to negatively impact the world’s largest economy, but these factors are expected to have faded by April. Monthly jobs data, arguably the most important gauge for both the Federal Reserve and the American people, is expected to show U.S. firms are continuing to hire at a solid pace as economic activity and growth takes hold. U.S. employment already returned to its pre-recession peak in May, with nonfarm job gains of 217,000 which would be a fifth straight month of job gains above 200,000, a run unmatched since the Sept 1999-Jan 2000 period. The jobs figures on Thursday are also set to feature a steady 6.3 percent unemployment rate.

Meanwhile forecasts for the influential ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing and services reports due today, point to a further acceleration of growth, with respectively a fifth and fourth consecutive rise in the monthly indices. Economists predict growth could top an annualized 5 percent in the April-June period due to a rise of inventories, a rebound of investment and a boost from trade. Less optimistic economists suggest the jobs and ISM reports should at least provide a counterbalance to muted consumer spending in May. Consumer spending rose by just 0.2 percent in the month following a flat reading in April, prompting some economists to cut their estimates for second-quarter growth to as low as a 2.2 percent pace from as high as 4.0 percent before.

Japan Business Sentiment Takes A Negative Hit

Business sentiment in Japan took a negative impact in the three months to June but is expected to recover in the months ahead, as revealed in the Bank of Japan’s tankan survey on Tuesday - another sign the economy should weather a rise in the country’s sales tax. The headline index for big manufacturers’ sentiment slipped by five points from three months ago to plus 12 which reflects the drag on consumer spending and the economy from the April 1 increase in Japan’s sales tax to 8 percent from 5 percent which was the first rise in the consumption tax in 17 years. However, big manufacturers said they expect business conditions to improve in the following quarter. The closely-watched tankan report also showed big firms plan to raise their capital spending by 7.4 percent for the fiscal year that started in April. Japan’s blue-chip Nikkei stock index opened 0.12 percent higher, while the yen was little changed around 101.35 per dollar.

Google Designs A Safer Car Touchscreen

Car manufacturers are increasingly integrating touchscreens into vehicles to the dismay of safe-driving advocates, who fear people are already too distracted by phone calls and texts while driving. Tech companies are, however, responding by designing what they say are safer ways for customers to stay focused on their favorite apps and online services behind the wheel. Google’s Android, for example, is working on an interface to make it safer and more user-friendly through a platform called Android Auto, which allows maps, music, and personal organization functions on your phone to be accessed through a larger screen in the car. Followers are describing it as Android’s answer to Apple’s CarPlay. Interest in designing a smart screen for the car is growing increasingly popular with 28 carmakers already in the Open Automotive Alliance working with Android Auto. For Google, using Android Auto means drivers will continue using its services during their commute.

That sums up today’s highlights! We hope you have a profitable day on the markets.

Just A Minute!

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the markets.

Main Trading Events Of The Day: Several today including USD Non-Farm Employment Change @ 13.30, USD Trade Balance @ 13.30 & USD Employment Rate @ 13.30 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls: Gains In Job Growth Expected

Stock markets are ready for a soft jobs report due later today. Data is expected to show that employers in the U.S. hired more workers in February than a month earlier, indicating that companies were confident that demand will bounce back from a weather-induced slowdown. Payrolls increased 149,000 last month after a 113,000 gain in January, according to a Bloomberg survey ahead of figures from the Labor Department. The jobless rate held at 6.6 percent, the lowest since 2008, the survey also showed.

Even with last month’s pickup, job gains remain smaller than those seen for most of last year as the harsh weather conditions across the eastern U.S. slow consumer spending, housing and manufacturing. The Federal Reserve is trying to determine how much of the recent cooling has been due to weather, which means the outlook for monetary policy may not become clearer until March data becomes available but analysts believe that the weather is not the only factor behind the lull in activity - businesses are working through a large amount of unsold goods accumulated in the second half of 2013, which means they have no incentive to place new orders with manufacturers.

The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, is set for its biggest weekly gain in three months versus the yen before the release of U.S. payrolls data, with Federal Reserve officials reiterating the threshold for changing its stimulus tapering is high. The U.S. currency yesterday was at its strongest versus the yen since January as reports showed fewer Americans filed claims for jobless benefits. The dollar was little changed at 102.97 yen, from 103.07 yen yesterday, and has climbed 1.2 percent this week, the biggest advance since the period ended Nov. 29.

Meanwhile, Gold traded near the highest level in more than four months and headed for a fifth weekly advance before U.S. payrolls data. Gold rose 1.8 percent this week and closed at $1,350.02 an ounce yesterday, when prices rose 1 percent on expectations that U.S. borrowing costs will hold at a record low and European inflation will gradually accelerate. The metal reached $1,354.87 on March 3, the highest since Oct. 30, as tension between Ukraine and Russia escalated.

U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change @ 13.30 GMT.

What Is The Impact Of The Ukraine Crisis For Investors?

The recent Russia/Ukraine situation has caused some pronounced unrest in the currency markets, as well as a sharp selloff in the Russian equity market. Should investors be worried and is the safety trade the best trade? Much of this depends on whether Western influence can stop Russia invading. It is unlikely that the United States can stop Putin, but it can make it very uncomfortable for him to proceed. It is worth remembering that Russia has major pipelines running through Ukraine that deliver natural gas to the rest of Europe. Mistreating Ukraine to the point that it shuts down those pipelines would be economically devastating to Russia. It is unlikely that Ukraine will mount any meaningful military resistance to Russia simply because Ukraine is effectively broke. The Ukrainians cannot finance a war as they teeter on the edge of bankruptcy. What will punish Russia significantly will likely be the damage to asset prices that will be the consequence of investment funds leaving the country. Russia was forced to raise its overnight lending rate by 1.5 percent to defend the value of the ruble.

What does this mean for investors? Should investors be pulling up stakes in Russia and repatriating their funds home? Probably not, when you take into consideration what matters to Russia. First, oil is of great importance. Russia is one of the top producers of oil, and rising prices for crude means better revenues for Russia. Gold also matters to Russia. Russia is sensitive to the price of gold and other metals. Rising gold prices benefit Russia’s miners. The reality is that Russia likely will benefit from any spikes in commodity prices that these events cause. Russia’s markets are down significantly here and many believe they should be bought. With regard to equity prices, these are mainly dependent on earnings growth. Analysts believe that none of the events in Ukraine or Russia are likely have any impact on the earnings of companies here or in Russia. Earnings are expected to continue rising, and sooner or later the uncertainty in Russia will dissipate. Those investors who buy during the days of bad news will likely be winners once the political unrest blows over.

That sums up today’s highlights! We hope you have a profitable day on the markets.

Just A Minute!

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the markets:

Main Trading Events Of The Day: USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change @ 13.15 & USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI @ 15.00 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

U.S. Jobs Data On The Way…

With the focus having been on the situation in the Ukraine, the attention is back on U.S. economic reports today. The ADP report gives a hint of what the jobs report might look like on Friday. U.S. employers hired 150,000 workers in February, after adding 113,000 in January, according to a Bloomberg News survey. A report from ADP Research Institute today will show companies boosted payrolls by 155,000 last month after an increase of 175,000 in January. Employment gains for December and January were both less than economists forecast, depressed by winter storms. Weak data is explicable on account of the weather seems to be the mantra right now and the consensus is that it will take a couple of bad reports to disillusion investors at this point. In addition, the ADP report has been a wildcard in recent months in that it has been an inaccurate gauge of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reiterated on Feb. 27 that the central bank is likely to keep curtailing its stimulus. The central bank said on Dec. 18 it would trim its monthly bond purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion, before cutting by another $10 billion in January. The purchases are designed to hold down long-term borrowing costs and spur economic growth.

Asian Shares Jump And Yen Recovers As Ukraine Tension Eases

Asian stocks jumped and the yen recovered after a sharp tumble on Wednesday, after Putin said that force was not needed for now. The markets took Putin’s words positively and with wariness over the Ukraine easing for the time being at least, the focus has shifted back to fundamentals, notably Thursday’s European Central Bank monetary policy meeting and Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. However, despite the widespread relief, market watchers warned that the crisis was not over, warning of further jolts for the financial markets ahead. The easing of geopolitical tensions saw a reversal of yesterday’s movements in most asset markets. However, tensions remain high and suggest some further volatility in financial markets while the situation in Ukraine remains uncertain.

The Australian dollar, already on a bullish footing after cooling of tensions in Ukraine revived risk appetite, received a further boost after data showed Australia’s economic growth had beaten forecasts, reinforcing expectations of a steady interest rate outlook. The AUD was at $0.8947 from a low near 89 U.S. cents. Australia’s major trading partner China has said it will maintain its economic growth target for 2014 at around 7.5 percent as expected and push forward convertibility of the yuan. Analysts said the statement was an indication that China would widen the yuan’s trading band going forward as expected, further signaling a possible end to the currency’s one-way appreciation.

The yen, which rallied on its safe-haven appeal this week as tensions mounted in Ukraine, remained on the back foot after a heavy reversal on Tuesday. The dollar was buying 102.14 yen, moving away from a one-month low of 101.20 hit on Monday, while the euro bought 140.29 yen, after touching a two-week low of 138.75 yen on Thursday.

Tech News: PC Market Fell Hardest In 2013, Analyst Firm Says

The traditional PC industry saw its sharpest decline ever in 2013, and the sales drought is expected to continue through 2018 according to analysts, IDC. PC shipments fell by 9.8 percent overall last year, the sharpest drop on record. While the fourth quarter actually performed better than expected, IDC said that sales dried up in emerging markets, dipping 11.3 percent - evidence that tablets and phones are cutting into sales all across the world. 315.1 million PCs shipped in 2013, and 295.9 million are expected to be sold in 2014, a 6 percent dip. By 2018, the PC market should drop to annual sales of 291.7 million units.

Emerging markets used to be a core driver of the PC market, as rising penetration among large populations boosted overall growth but right now, emerging regions are finding themselves more affected by a weak economic environment as well as significant shifts in technology buying priorities. In making its projections, IDC said it factored in a number of variables, including concerns about the impact of slower economic growth and continued pressure from tablets and smartphones.

That sums up Wednesday’s highlights! We hope you have a profitable day on the markets.

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