Tag Archives: metal

Tin Splash

Tin to Make a Splash in Metals Market for 2014

Tin seems to be the way to the future-at least as far as wise investing for 2014-with global demand far exceeding the supply levels of diminishing inventories and China ramping up its role as net importer, according to Morgan Stanley.

China, metal economists note, can no longer sufficiently fulfil its own needs in neither refined- nor mined-tin, as demand for led-free solder in the electronics sectors has risen once again.

Although Indonesia has aggravated global deficit with the export curb it imposed, tin has been the best performing base metal this year on the London Metal Exchange. The disturbance created by the rule changes in the world’s greatest exporter have hiked up the costs of local producers, pushing prices up for makers in the electronics and packaging industries.

The shift in China’s stand from an exporter of the commodity to an importer looking to cover even its basic needs especially stands out in the eyes if investors who predict the improvement in the metal’s performance through next year.

In an October 7th report, Morgan Stanley sees the price of tin for immediate delivery to average $22,845 a ton next year. This year so far, by comparison, tin’s price on the LME has averaged to $22,203 a ton. Three-month tin saw a drop of 2 percent this year, which was smaller that the falls in aluminium, nickel, lead and zinc.

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Iron Burning

Iron Firing Up China’s Expanding Economy

Record iron ore sales to China are unexpectedly seen to extend the bull market as estimators from Morgan Stanley to the World Bank feel encouraged to increase price predictions.

The world’s biggest iron-ore export terminal, Australia’s Port Hedland, has increased shipments to China by 43 percent to record levels last month, port data show. September saw the Asian country importing the largest ever quantities of ors, according to customs data. Standard Bank Group Ltd. and the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, Australia’s state forecaster, also raised price estimates in the past several weeks.

With data showing Asia’s largest economy accelerating, prices rallied to a two-month high in China last week. Despite higher productions level with Australian producers expanding supply to move into surplus next year for the first time since 2010, no excesses are expected to be stored up until the second half of the year. Iron ore is the biggest source of revenue for Rio Tinto Group, BHP Billiton Ltd. and Vale SA and the largest seaborne commodity cargo after crude oil.

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Commodities

Technical Analysis Predicts 11% Losses for Commodities

Technical analysis by Bank of America Corp. sees commodities falling 11 percent in the upcoming weeks to their lowest levels since May 2010.

The Continuous Commodity Futures Price Index of 17 raw materials has been described as “on the edge of breaking down” by MacNeil Curry, the head of foreign exchange and interest-rate technical strategy at Bank of America in New York, and is reportedly expected to drop to 447.

An index of the six primary industrial metals traded on the London Metal Exchange is set for a second weekly drop, as are gold and silver for immediate delivery. In Chicago, corn and wheat are falling for a third consecutive week. Crude oil is charting a declining course for a fifth week in New York and arabica coffee reached its lowest point since 2006 yesterday.

The commodities measures closed yesterday at 503.99, marking a 9.1-percent drop for the year. Curry warns that a sustained break of 500, which he interprets as two closes below the 500-mark, would open an additional 10 percent slide.

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bullion

Bullion Declining As Fed Hints At Recovery

Gold declined for a third day, trimming its monthly gain, as the U.S. Federal Reserve spoke of willingness to scale back its monetary stimulus, should economy improve. Silver platinum, and palladium have also experienced drops.

Gold for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.7 percent to $1,335.30 an ounce. Prices, however, are still up 0.5 percent this month after the 16-day U.S. shutdown hurt the country’s economy and investors anticipate that the Fed won’t slow down the pace of asset purchases until next year.

More specifically the central bank announced yesterday that it will maintain its $85 billion monthly bond purchases, while noting that it could see signs of “underlying strength” in the economy.

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ArcelorMittal Logo

ArcelorMittal to Rise with Recovering Eurozone

The sares of ArcelorMittal (MT), the world’s biggest steelmaker, are set to rebound as European manufacturing exits an almost two-year downtrend.

A recovery in the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Markit Survey Ticker pushed the gap between the index and ArcelorMitta’s hare price to the most since Laksmi Mittal eclipsed Arcelor SA in 2006. With the ending of a recession in September car sales rallied the most in more than two years.

ArcelorMittal decreased its 2013 earnings forecast last August due to lower-than-expected demand in the U.S. and Europe. In 2013, the shares of the European steel industry have declined 4.3 percent.

The European PMU survey, however, surpassed the level of 50 in July for the first time in two years, signifying an increase in manufacturing in comparison with the previous moth.

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Platinum

Platinum and Palladium Predicted Best Performing

Record global car sales will keep platinum and palladium in high demand and short supply for the third year in a row, according to forecasters.

The prediction marks the longest stretch of shortage for the metals, which are used as catalytic converters, since 2005 for platinum and 2000 for palladium. Platinum is expected to gain 13 percentage to average $1,635 an ounce by the fourth quarter of next year. Palladium is predicted to gain 10.3 percent to average $823 an ounce, its highest for a quarter since 2001.

Unlike gold and silver that have slumped 20 percent or more as investors lose faith in them as a commodity of value, the market is bullish on platinum and palladium. Although metal stockpiles are diminishing as mining companies have difficulties in keeping up with current demand, car sales growth is projected to increase to 4.8 percent in 2014 from 2.7 percent this year.

It is expected, however, that improving mine output will decrease shortages. The platinum deficit is projected to decline 59 percent to 239,000 ounces and that in palladium to narrow 16 percent to 686,000 ounces, according to Barclays. Primary supply will expand 0.4 percent for palladium and 2.1 percent for platinum, the bank says. Should mines be disrupted by strikes or natural disasters, there exist stockpiles that can be tapped. This year, about 80,000 ounces of platinum was lost to such events.

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SONY DSC

Alcoa jumps as aluminium expected to rise

Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest aluminium producer in the U.S., jumped as decreased output and warehousing dispute convinced investors that stock would not be falling.

Alcoa rose 8.8. percent to $9.36 at the close in New York after having traded triple its average volume in the past 15 days.

Aluminium output outside of China fell for the third consecutive month in September, the International Aluminium Institute reported yesterday in the release of its data.

The U.S. aluminium companies Century Aluminum Co. (CENX) and Norada Aluminum Holding Corp. (NOR) also rose 18 percent and 5.9 percent respectively.

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