Tag Archives: Mark Carney

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Carney Hints That Rates Could Rise Sooner Than Expected

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:

Main Trading Event Of The Day: U.S. PPI m/m @ 12.30 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

Carney Hints That Rates Could Rise Sooner Than Expected

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has hinted that British interest rates could rise sooner than expected and that monetary policy may start to tighten within months. Carney’s comments on the possible timing of an interest rate rise have rattled the financial markets as relatively few economists had expected rates to increase until the second quarter of next year. Carney suggested that Britain’s economy still had scope to grow without pushing up inflation, but that there was little sign yet of a slowdown in the pace of expansion that the central bank had pencilled in for the second half of the year.

Sterling gained a cent against the U.S. dollar to hit a one-month high above $1.693 as traders bet on a rate rise that some thought could now come before the end of the year. Last month, a minority of BoE policymakers said the case for a rate rise was “more balanced” and that interest rates might need to increase sooner rather than later to ensure they did not need to rise sharply. Carney had until now appeared less keen to contemplate a rate rise, emphasising that Britain’s economy was still a long way from full strength. Carney said that more important than the timing of a first rate rise was that future increases be gradual and limited. The BoE has no fixed plan as to when to raise rates and the timing of a rate rise will depend on incoming data.

Asia Stocks Mostly Lower On Iraq Concerns

Asian stocks moved lower today as concerns over growing instability in Iraq hit sentiment ahead of a raft of Chinese economic data. The Nikkei Share Average was down 0.6%, with the market weighed by a yen that strengthened as news reports showed Iraq edging toward all-out conflict. The dollar lost 0.4% against the safe haven currency in the previous session, its third consecutive decline, though it picked up a touch in Asian trade. It was last at ¥101.80, compared with ¥101.71. The unrest in Iraq also pushed the price of oil 0.8% higher in Asian trade, with the July Nymex crude futures contract trading at $107.33 per barrel, adding to a 2% jump on Thursday. Furthermore, Asia got a negative lead from U.S. stocks, with Wall Street ending lower after retail sales numbers missed expectations. South Korea’s Kospi lost 1% while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.8%. The higher cost of oil boosted shares in energy companies while affecting firms dependent on fuel, including airlines. The main economic highlight for Asia will come from China, with the world’s second largest economy releasing industrial output numbers and well as retail sales data. The trend for data this month has suggested stabilisation in the Chinese economy following upbeat export and manufacturing data. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was mostly steady ahead of the data, up 0.1%, and the Shanghai Composite Index was flat.

Will The World Cup Make Brazil Stocks Attractive?

Although the Brazilian team is a favourite to win the World Cup, analysts don’t believe playing host to the tournament is likely to boost the country’s economy or its shares. “The World Cup is not going to make it for Brazil, as has not been the case for South Africa or others before,” according to one analyst. Experience tells us that the boost from World Cups and Olympic games is relatively limited. It is expected that Brazil’s gross domestic product (GDP) this year will add up to less than half a percentage point, leading to a total economic growth forecast of 1.5 percent. Playing host will to some extent boost the tourism sector but tourism is a small share of GDP in Brazil. There is also the likelihood that it will bring with it higher inflation and higher labour costs which is exactly what Brazil doesn’t need right now. Brazil’s investment outlook is not particularly bright and it prefers to invest in other emerging markets so investors are unlikely to be jumping in with both feet at this time. Investors don’t like the history of hyperinflation nor the expectation that the economy is going to grow 1.7 percent this year and 2 percent next year. The Bovespa index has recovered around 7 percent so far this year, after falling over 15 percent last year. On a more positive note, Brazil is widely expected to win its own World Cup!

That sums up today’s highlights! We hope you have a profitable day on the markets. Have a great weekend! We’re back on Monday!

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Just A Minute!

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary what’s happening in the markets today:

Main Trading Events Of The Day: ECB President Draghi Speaks @ 15.30; BOE Gov Carney Speaks & Inflation Report @10.30 GMT

Earnings Reports: N/A

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

Stocks Rise Along With Gold On Yellen’s Comments

U.S. stocks surged with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising triple digits and the Nasdaq Composite turning positive for the year, as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen reassured Wall Street that the Fed would continue the central bank’s policy of providing monetary stimulus to bolster the economy and expected “a great deal of continuity” with the monetary policies of her predecessor, Ben Bernanke. The House voted to suspend the nation’s borrowing limit until March 2015, without any policy conditions. This was a positive move for the markets because previous debates on U.S. government spending have weighed on global markets in the past, in particular, the budget impasse late last year that resulted in a government shutdown. Asian markets also moved higher after Yellen suggested that there would be no major change in the central bank’s policy, while stronger-than-expected trade data pushed Hong Kong higher. Gold bullion also gained again in trading today following Yellen’s testimony. The Fed is now buying $65 billion in bonds each month to stimulate the economy, down $20 billion from its 2013 pace. Many gold bugs predict inflation will follow the central bank’s accumulation of a $4.1 trillion balance sheet.

ECB’s Draghi Speaks; Will Deflation Be On The Agenda?

ECB President Draghi will deliver the keynote address at a conference in Brussels today. Euro-zone industrial output fell a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent in December compared with a gain of 1.8 percent in the previous month. All eyes will be on Mario Draghi and any indications about economic measures that the ECB is likely to impose in order to beat deflation. The ECB may soon have to roll out the heavy artillery, in the form of an asset purchase program similar to those in the U.S., U.K. and Japan to fight the specter of deflation. Despite substantial progress over the past year, the euro-area economy remains vulnerable. Spare capacity and weak growth, along with relative price cuts by countries trying to restore competitiveness, is putting severe downward pressure on inflation. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney also releases an inflation report today where he will seek to cement investor expectations that the next increase in interest rates is some time away when he presents an updated version of his forward-guidance policy. Yields suggest Carney has convinced traders that there is enough slack in the economy to maintain the benchmark rate at a record 0.5 percent this year.

Super Mario to the Rescue?

Will Apple’s Sapphire-Screen iPhone Be Here Soon?

The latest rumours surfacing about Apple’s plans to manufacture sapphire are the most credible foundation yet for speculation that the iPhone will one day soon boast the most scratch-resistant screen on the planet. It’s not yet clear if the next-generation iPhone would get such a sapphire screen, or if the world will have to wait until 2015, presumably for an “iPhone 6s” model. Some are even claiming that it will be the iWatch that will be the first Apple device to be equipped with the scratch-resistant material. If the latest sapphire tech rumour is true, Apple’s exclusive manufacturing partner, GT Advanced Technologies, is gearing up its Arizona manufacturing facility with enough furnaces to forge as many as 200 million iPhone displays. The price of sapphire will inevitably result in driving up the retail price tag of the iPhone. A price increase could be detrimental to Apple as the iPhone already has a premium price tag. One to watch!

apple-sapphire

That sums up today’s highlights! Keep checking in for all the latest trading news via Facebook, Twitter & Google+. We hope you have a profitable day on the markets!

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British Pound and Home Prices Continue Rising

Homes in the U.K. have become more expensive than they have been in a decade showed a report yesterday, as the sterling pound climbed to its highest levels in over two years against the dollar.

The British currency failed to gain only against one of its 16 major peers and economists anticipate that data will show an increased industrial output for October, which would make it the second month of expansion, as well as a smaller trade deficit. The signs are positive for the country’s economy, but Bank of England Governor Mark Carney noted in his speeech in New York yesterday that the recovery will need to be sustained for longer before it can cope with higher interest rates.

Responding to questions following his talk at the Economic Club of New York, Gov. Carny said that his policy of guiding the Bank of England forward has been “effective” in keeping short-term interest rates low and boosting the economy.

A Bloomberg News survey has showed that industrial production in the U.K. rose 0.4 percent after gaining 0.9 percent in September. Other Bloomberg surveys of analysts showed that manufacturing production increased 0.4 percent in October and the trade deficit fell to 9.2 billion pounds from 9.8 billion pounds in September.

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