Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:
Main Trading Event Of The Day: U.S. PPI m/m @ 12.30 GMT
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY
Carney Hints That Rates Could Rise Sooner Than Expected
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has hinted that British interest rates could rise sooner than expected and that monetary policy may start to tighten within months. Carney’s comments on the possible timing of an interest rate rise have rattled the financial markets as relatively few economists had expected rates to increase until the second quarter of next year. Carney suggested that Britain’s economy still had scope to grow without pushing up inflation, but that there was little sign yet of a slowdown in the pace of expansion that the central bank had pencilled in for the second half of the year.
Sterling gained a cent against the U.S. dollar to hit a one-month high above $1.693 as traders bet on a rate rise that some thought could now come before the end of the year. Last month, a minority of BoE policymakers said the case for a rate rise was “more balanced” and that interest rates might need to increase sooner rather than later to ensure they did not need to rise sharply. Carney had until now appeared less keen to contemplate a rate rise, emphasising that Britain’s economy was still a long way from full strength. Carney said that more important than the timing of a first rate rise was that future increases be gradual and limited. The BoE has no fixed plan as to when to raise rates and the timing of a rate rise will depend on incoming data.
Asia Stocks Mostly Lower On Iraq Concerns
Asian stocks moved lower today as concerns over growing instability in Iraq hit sentiment ahead of a raft of Chinese economic data. The Nikkei Share Average was down 0.6%, with the market weighed by a yen that strengthened as news reports showed Iraq edging toward all-out conflict. The dollar lost 0.4% against the safe haven currency in the previous session, its third consecutive decline, though it picked up a touch in Asian trade. It was last at ¥101.80, compared with ¥101.71. The unrest in Iraq also pushed the price of oil 0.8% higher in Asian trade, with the July Nymex crude futures contract trading at $107.33 per barrel, adding to a 2% jump on Thursday. Furthermore, Asia got a negative lead from U.S. stocks, with Wall Street ending lower after retail sales numbers missed expectations. South Korea’s Kospi lost 1% while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.8%. The higher cost of oil boosted shares in energy companies while affecting firms dependent on fuel, including airlines. The main economic highlight for Asia will come from China, with the world’s second largest economy releasing industrial output numbers and well as retail sales data. The trend for data this month has suggested stabilisation in the Chinese economy following upbeat export and manufacturing data. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was mostly steady ahead of the data, up 0.1%, and the Shanghai Composite Index was flat.
Will The World Cup Make Brazil Stocks Attractive?
Although the Brazilian team is a favourite to win the World Cup, analysts don’t believe playing host to the tournament is likely to boost the country’s economy or its shares. “The World Cup is not going to make it for Brazil, as has not been the case for South Africa or others before,” according to one analyst. Experience tells us that the boost from World Cups and Olympic games is relatively limited. It is expected that Brazil’s gross domestic product (GDP) this year will add up to less than half a percentage point, leading to a total economic growth forecast of 1.5 percent. Playing host will to some extent boost the tourism sector but tourism is a small share of GDP in Brazil. There is also the likelihood that it will bring with it higher inflation and higher labour costs which is exactly what Brazil doesn’t need right now. Brazil’s investment outlook is not particularly bright and it prefers to invest in other emerging markets so investors are unlikely to be jumping in with both feet at this time. Investors don’t like the history of hyperinflation nor the expectation that the economy is going to grow 1.7 percent this year and 2 percent next year. The Bovespa index has recovered around 7 percent so far this year, after falling over 15 percent last year. On a more positive note, Brazil is widely expected to win its own World Cup!
That sums up today’s highlights! We hope you have a profitable day on the markets. Have a great weekend! We’re back on Monday!