Tag Archives: Italy

Big Mac Variable

The Big Mac Variable

McDonald’s, the company whose symbol is more popular the cross of Christianity, has a product which is probably the most well-known burger in the world, namely the Big Mac. The company’s flagship burger has also become a measurement tool for economists who use the price changes of the Big Mac to determine various economic aspects of a country’s financial health.

Source: Bruegel computation based on data compiled by the Economist.

 

Now one European think-tank and its innovative researchers have taken the Big Mac Index and morphed it into a variable which seems to suggest that countries undergoing severe austerity measures outperform on average countries with slacker economic policies. However, according to the researchers, Italy is the sole exception to the rule.

The Big Mac index was developed by The Economist in 1986 as a happy-go-lucky manual to whether currencies are at their “accurate” level. The index is centered around the idea of purchasing-power parity (PPP) determining that in the long run exchange rates should move towards the rate that would equalise the prices of an indistinguishable basket of goods and services (Big Mac) in any two countries. For instance, the average price of a Big Mac in America at the start of 2013 was $4.37. In China it was only $2.57 at market exchange rates which meant that the “raw” Big Mac index claimed that the Yuan was unappreciated by 41 percent at that time.

According to the kids at Bruegel and their Big Mac Standard, austerity-embracing Austria and Germany grow above average, while the spend-to-recover countries such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain are below average. Austerity-driven policies seem to be working not just for unit labour costs but even real prices are adjusting:

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Mario Monti's Departure

Super Mario’s Departure

The recent resignation of Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti is seen by many as a massive blow to the eurozone’s rehabilitation efforts. The man, often referred to as Super Mario, was for a long time the favorite technocrat of the austerity-minded European countries. Monti’s untimely departure might delight some Spanish and Greek politicians who struggle to keep their countries afloat in the face of tough austerity measures, shrinking work-forces and dwindling cash flows.

Where goes Italy, there usually goes Spain. If Italy’s new leadership is not interested in imposing Monti’s formula, then it is likely that Italy and subsequently Spain will falter and bring down the economic union. This might also mean that the anxious northern creditors will never be paid back in full.

Monti’s realism coupled with an understanding of southern European fiscal mentality might come haunt the Eurozone protagonists who wish to keep the zone together at any cost. Monti famously observed that “not all Greeks are ready to do whatever is necessary to stay in the euro”. Monti’s words might indicate that Greece, together with Spain and possibly Italy will form a pact to oppose tough austerity measures promulgated by northern European creditors.

Monti’s resignation came as a consequence to an announcement by Silvio Berlusconi’s People of Liberty Party (PDL) that the party no longer supports Monti’s government. The bombastic Berlusconi who has been embroiled in sex scandals, pronounced that he will be leading PDL into the next election in early 2013.

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