Tag Archives: Ireland

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DIY Eurozone Bailouts?

According to a new report by Germany’s Bundesbank, Eurozone countries on the verge of a default should draw on the private wealth of their citizens instead of asking others for help. The central bank has detailed a future template for bailouts which attempts to avoid the previous model used for Greece, Portugal and Ireland and has suggested that a one-off capital levy, in other words, a tax on people’s private wealth should be imposed in the first instance, if a country runs into problems.

The bank stressed that a country should exhaust its own possibilities to regain the trust in the sustainability of its public finances and that rescue programs financed by other member states’ taxpayers should only exceptionally be put into action as a last resort such as when the financial stability of the Eurozone is in real danger.

Complaints from northern European members about having to bail out their southern neighbours are commonplace and billions of euros have been used to prop up struggling countries. Greece, for example, has secured two international bailouts since mid-2010, totaling around $330 billion. The German government has always insisted on harsh austerity measures as a way for stricken countries to get their economies back on track and signaled their unwillingness to let the European Central Bank engage in quantitative easing which would potentially fuel inflation in its own nation.

The Bundesbank report looks to renew a debate as to whether German taxpayers should be on the line with future Eurozone bailouts, illustrating the fact that there is no support in the Eurozone for any large scale mutualisation of debts. This means that future loans could be more of a bail-in than a bailout-in, as seen in Cyprus. Hence, the message for countries wanting Eurozone bailouts in the future is, do it yourself!

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morning-coffee

Luck Of The Irish? Things Can Only Get Better…

Last year as a whole, Ireland was one of the best performing stock markets in the world. Things are getting better, yet even after this performance there are still plenty of problems and things are still pretty grim for most people. But from an investor’s point of view, it’s important to look at the overall direction, not just the absolute figures. Markets anticipate change – if you buy when everything looks rosy, the chances are you’ve missed the best gains and are getting in just in time for a fall.

One of the most visible signs of a recovery is that property prices are continuing to rise after five consecutive years of falls. Not surprisingly, the most dramatic rise has been in Dublin, where prices have surged more than 15% in the past year. National prices are up by more than 6%. The construction industry is recovering along with house prices. The latest GDP data shows that the sector grew by 2.2% in the last quarter alone. Confidence among managers in the sector is high, too. It’s not just the construction business. Firms in other industries are also optimistic. Irish capital investment shot up by 10.9% in the past quarter. It shows that companies are confident enough to put their cash to use.

Ireland is also slowly regaining control over its national finances. Having exited the bailout that saved it from national bankruptcy, it doesn’t have to rely on support from the Troika anymore giving it leeway to take modest measures to boost the economy, such as targeted tax cuts. Dublin expects to run a ‘primary surplus’ as early this year meaning the government will take in more money than it spends on everything excluding interest payments.

Ireland still has big problems. GDP is still well below the 2007 peak, deflation is a threat, and unemployment is still high but the overall signs are looking good. Tough economic measures are still needed for sure…together with a little luck of the Irish!

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Ireland Exits Euro bailout: What does the Future Hold?

Ireland was celebrated last week as the first country to exit the Troika financial-rescue programme. Ireland’s Finance Minister, Michael Noonan, rightly chatacterised the day as a “milestone” for the country as he thanked the rescuers for their support and praised the people for their complying and enduring through the austerity measures of the last few years. But what does Ireland’s exit really mean? Far from safe and stable the country still struggles with a 124% of GDP debt level that they have to manage to stay afloat. What lies ahead beyond Troika and how will Ireland handle its new-found financial independence? Read what our CEO has to say…

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