Beppe Grillo, the comedian-turned-politician is looking to give the Italian political system a much-needed shake-up. However, Grillo’s plans would include a 20-hour work week and quitting the euro. Oddly enough, the markets have not taken seriously such a scenario and thus continue to behave confidently.
If Italy – the eurozone’s third largest economy – were to leave the euro, it would be unlikely that the single currency would have much support amongst other member states. But when it comes to Italy, anything can happen.
Italian domestic political posturing à la Grillo is reminiscent of Vittorio Orlando’s antics following the end of the First World War when Italy was manoeuvring between the winning and losing sides to get the best possible deal.
Orlando’s weakness at the Versailles Peace Conference gave one Benito Mussolini an opportunity to portray himself as the saviour of Italians from the hands of bloodsucking – as he depicted them – British and Americans.
Perhaps Grillo is a more serious political strategist than many assume and it’s plausible that the entertainer has studied the political playbooks of his predecessors in detail. Perhaps the outgoing PM Mario Monti, who played ball with fiscal euro-conservatives, is the present-day Orlando while Grillo, mimicking historical developments, is the man who will save Italy.
What remains to be seen is whether an Italian government led by a bombastic and hugely populist comedian would turn the country into a chaotic circus or whether he would be able to moderate his views and behaviour to accommodate other visions and thus produce a viable road map for Italy to rise from the throes of a looming catastrophe.
Unlike its European neighbours, Italy is not fertile ground for healthy patriotism that would spur economic growth. This isn’t to say that Italians are lazy, but simply too fragmented to unify and pull the country out of harm’s way. Irrespective of the unlikely situation that the new prime minister’s name would be Beppe Grillo, the markets are worryingly lethargic over such a scenario.
Expect the austerity-loving northern Europeans to go bonkers if Grillo’s Italy decides to embrace Grillonomics.
