Tag Archives: France

Broken Piggy bank

Will Slump in Euro Zone Economy Prove Draghi’s Rate Cut Right?

Investors turn to their attention to the euro zone this week, as they await the release of growth data to gauge the strength of European economy as the initial signs of recovery appear to have slowed down, supporting Mario Draghi’s case to cut interest rates in an attempt to boost the economy.

The third quarter is expected to have recorded a mere 0.1 percent rise in gross domestic product in analyst’s projections. In the hours leading to the release of the report on 14th November, economists predict that data from Germany, France and Italy will already begin to indicate the growth halt.

Negative data would confirm that recovery is diminishing after a second-quarter jump of 0.3 percent that signalled the end of the region’s longest recession. The data are released one week after the European Central Bank president mentioned that the risk of “prolonged” period of low inflation as he announced the surprised rate cut to 0.25 percent.

The GDP data for the 17-nation euro area will be released by the European Union’s statistic office in Luxembourg at 11 a.m. on 14th November in a long series of European data publications. The day opens with France’s report at 7:30 a.m. in Paris, where economists expect economy to have staled.

Just last week, on 8th November, France was downgraded to AA by Startd and Poor’s, which cited that the current policies of President Francois Hollande’s government are “unlikely to substantially raise France’s medium-term growth prospects.”

Italian data, released in Rome at 10 a.m. on the same day, are expected to show a ninth straight quarter of losses. Antonio Golini, acting chairman of Istat, the Italian national statistics office, told lawmakers on 29th October that the economy shrank in the three months through September, predicting a 1.8 percent drop in GDP for the year.

More optimistic outlooks anticipate that enough momentum elsewhere in the currency bloc to accelerate growth toward the end of the year despite the recession in the region’s second- and third-biggest economies.

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The Stubborn Man of Europe

The Stubborn Man of Europe

High hopes, grandiloquent speeches, beautiful office buildings and elegantly designed symbols. All the seemingly necessary elements for a functioning supranational union are in place, but the recession plaguing the Eurozone is here to stay. According to EU’s spring economic forecast, eurozone is not about to bounce back from its current state anytime soon. With its stubborn and archaic policies, France is one of the countries preventing growth.

Olli Rehn, EU commissioner for economic and monetary affairs said that France might receive an additional two years to bring its deficit within the target three per cent of gross domestic product. France’s dire state can be explained by the country’s president Francois Hollande’s policies which are a mixture of nationalism, socialism and protectionism.

New York Times, hardly a champion of free markets, lamented Hollande’s misguided pride over preventing Yahoo from purchasing a controlling stake in the French video streaming site, Daily Motion. The NYT editorial reminded Hollande that after Skype - a Swedish/Danish venture - was sold to Ebay, its founders went on to invest in new startups.

With a president too scared to promote entrepreneurship, it seems that France has become a symbol of stagnation because it is willingly preventing its citizens from succeeding and connecting with the rest of the world. In modern financial markets, there is very little room for petulant nationalism and archaic rhetoric. Hollande needs to decide whether he wants to cling to fleeting notions of greatness or embrace modernity by freeing French innovation.

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Springtime for Hollande?

Springtime for Hollande?

The French president Francois Hollande’s arguably disastrous policies have put France in the same category of failing economies as Greece, Spain and Italy. Recent reports from Brussels suggest that France is on a collision course with Germany and other countries that advocate for fiscal responsibility. A report released by the European Commission on Wednesday used harsh language to describe France’s financial situation.

“France’s public sector indebtedness represents a vulnerability, not only for the country itself, but also for the euro area as a whole,” said the EC report.

The report also stated that “the resilience of the country to external shocks is diminishing and its medium-term growth prospects are increasingly hampered by longstanding imbalances.”

EC went as far as to threaten France with sanctions if it fails to change course. The two protagonists in the unravelling Eurozone play, Germany’s Angela Merkel and Hollande have been at odds since Hollande was elected president. Their economic policies and visions differ fundamentally, as Merkel has emphasised fiscal responsibility, while Hollande has sworn in the name of big government policies to revive the French economy. If one is to look at all the relevant variables measuring a country’s economic health, Merkel has succeeded while Hollande – who is now extremely unpopular in France – is heading towards a massive failure.

 

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Spain Continues to Disappoint

Spain Continues to Disappoint

Reports this morning suggest that Spain is in the throes of an ever-deepening financial crisis. The country’s industrial production took another dive, falling by 6.5 per cent in February compared to the corresponding month in 2012. Earlier this morning, during a speech to the country’s parliament, Spain’s Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy appealed the eurozone for solidarity. He asked that all countries take part in attempts to bring the region back from the verge of an economic abyss. Meanwhile, data from Italy and Spain also looked weak, while France’s industrial production only dropped by 2.8 per cent year-on-year in February.

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In Austerity We Trust

In Austerity We Trust

Reuters reported on Tuesday that a German parliamentarian - closely associated with Chancellor Angela Merkel – wants to see more cooperation between triple-A countries Netherlands, Finland and Germany. The parliamentarian in question, Hans Michelbach from the Christian Social Union (CSU) said that the three countries should stand together to strengthen the ailing currency union. Micelbach’s comments came during fierce speculation over the euro’s future.

The highly controversial Cyprus bailout, which Micelbach seemed to praise, raised questions about the tangibility of the currency union, especially in the face of growing discrepancies between the zone’s northern and southern members.

The parliamentarian used some tough language to describe France and Italy by referring to the European giants as “problem children”, reports say. He affirmed Germany’s commitment to its two natural partners, but lamented France’s president Francois Hollande for his socialist experiments and argued that such policies could lead to serious problems.

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Gerard Depardieu's Departure

Obelix Abandons Gallia

Gerard Depardieu, perhaps the most famous French actor outside of France and known for films other than Asterix and Obelix, has abandoned France for Russia due to the French President Francois Hollande’s soviet-style tax tyranny which attempts to punish the rich into submission.

Little did King Hollande know when planning a horrendous 75% tax on those earning more than a million per annum that the French royalty comprised of actors and designers would depart France in flock in favor of greener pastures (pun very much intended). One can’t make the argument that Russia is green like the US, but it certainly has more going for it in terms of income taxation. I wonder if Mr. Depardieu might end up regretting his decision to leave the beaches of Nice for the harsh Siberian winters.

However, if fleeing celebrities are any indication, France will soon become the home for the poor and the wretched.

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The Euro

The Euro Is Here To Stay

The current British foreign minister William Hague once described the euro as a burning building with no exits. Hague’s words still sound prophetic even though the eurozone’s house of cards is still standing. Perhaps the biggest flaw in the monetary union is the political union which preceded it and ultimately became a hindrance. For the euro visionaries, the political harmony and stability of the continent comprised the underlying drive for all the unions that followed; a cause célèbre for the generation that witnessed the horrors of World War II.

The idea to impose standardised monetary rules and regulations on European countries that are fundamentally different in terms of policy, efficiency, nature of workforce, purchasing power and other variables, has proven to be difficult and probably impossible.

Whether technocrats like Mario Monti or idealists like Francois Hollande, Europe will suffer from a self-imposed straight jacket which is also partly to blame for the sheer anarchy in Greece. The economists and policy makers in Europe have failed to grasp that culture determines a country’s success. Greeks are not Finns and certainly not Germans. Treating the south as north works on paper and in the numerous memos circulated in Brussels, but putting lipstick on a pig doesn’t change the fact that at the end of the day the pig is still a pig.

The euro will survive because European policy makers want it to survive. The euro has remained stable for the past years due to political will. However, investors should remember that the euro is the tail wagging the dog.

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