Tag Archives: FInland

Portugal Woes Weigh Heavy on the Euro

Portugal Woes Weigh Heavy on the Euro

The euro was trading around $1.30 against the dollar during Monday afternoon trade, anticipating bleak news from any one of the zone’s troubled economies. Following Cyprus and recently Slovenia – Portugal has now appeared as the latest patient in need of potentially instant care. On Friday Portugal’s high court ruled that the country’s plans to introduce pension cuts to its public sector was unlawful thus forcing the country to cough up another 900 million euros – precondition for the bailout – to fund its pending rescue package. Unlike other sick men in Europe such as Cyprus and Spain, Portugal is a student of austerity, an economic philosophy championed and cultivated by northern European countries. However, it seems that spending cuts are not enough to keep the Western European nation afloat.

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Euro Skepticism

Euro Skepticism

Two prominent, high-profile individuals, both ardent observers of the eurozone, told reporters on Sunday that the single currency will soon be a thing of the past. Paul de Grauwe, a Belgian economist lecturing at the London School of Economics told a Finnish daily that the euro’s woes will eventually bring it down. He added that the blame rest solely on the austerity minded Northern bloc, comprising Germany, Holland and Finland. De Grauwe blamed the tough trio for its save and cut policies and argued that these policies do not correspond with the high expectations the trio’s has for the ailing southern European nations. Bernd Lucke, another skeptic and the founder of Germany’s first eurosceptic party, told The Telegraph on Sunday that Germany has had enough of the single currency. Lucke argues that the euro divides Europeans and will do more harm than good. Unlike de Grauwe, Lucke is a politician whose niche in the debate is quite clear, but de Grauwe wants to see the euro succeed. Motivations aside, both agree that the euro is doomed.

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Economist Predicts the end of Euro

Economist Predicts the end of Euro

A world-renowned Belgian economist, Paul de Grauwe told Finnish daily Helsingin Sanomat on Sunday that the eurozone will self-implode within 10 years. De Grauwe said that eurozone decision makers, led by Finland, Germany and Holland, have made a number of serious mistakes in managing the current crisis. These countries have demanded steadfast economic growth from ailing economies while swearing in the name of austerity. De Grauwe said that such demands have been unreasonable because Northern Europeans have applied strict economic policies on their own economies thus preventing southern eurozone members from flourishing. According to De Grauwe, Germany and Finland should not be proud of their budgetary discipline, but instead, should spend and stimulate.

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A Disjointed Eurozone

At an event titled Finland in Changing Europe, the country’s prime minister, Jyrki Katainen outlined some of his ideas for the European Union and the eurozone. He spoke about the need for solidarity and coherence, while warning about the consequences of extremist viewpoints. Katainen stated that he has no particular vision for the union or how it should evolve going further.

Nevertheless, the prime minister seemed adamant about the meaning of solidarity which he did not see – to paraphrase – simply as an act of kicking the can down the road and putting out fires, but rather, as an act of deepening security cooperation between the member states.

Moreover, Katainen argued that the idea of enforcing peace, a view subscribed to and advocated by the founders of the European Union, is longer sufficient to keep the union together and other, additional forces must guide decision making in the future.

For the audience, Katainen’s views were a reflection of the eurozone as a whole: a rigid system imposed on a disjointed union of countries with different cultures and values.

The problems with the single currency are manifold. However, the main issues circle around competing political interests. Even if the member states would agree to establish a standard to which each and every country would commit to, it would be impossible to achieve a crisis-free zone.

For instance, EU and the eurozone are seen largely as matters of foreign policy among Europe’s various constituencies The problems with the euro are still secondary to other, seemingly more pressing issues such as unemployment, education and taxation. Therefore, when politicians are forced to balance between the foreign and domestic interests – which do not always converge – they often end up bowing to one and mooning the other. In an ambitious and idealistic union like the eurozone, such a model cannot be sustained.

For Katainen and other eurozone advocates, it would be helpful to understand what the moral basis of the eurozone is. Imagine a big family in which people are related to one another by blood, but do not get along. Indeed, blood-relations do not guarantee a harmonious relationship, but shared values do - or at least make cooperation possible.

The eurozone decision makers would be well-advised to come together to determine whether the values of the 17 member states are similar enough to sustain a zone in desperate need of harmony, stability and a unified vision of the future.

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Euro Down Despite Cyprus Deal

Euro Down Despite Cyprus Deal

The single currency hit a new 4-month low against the dollar as Cyprus bailout implications are still unclear. Investors worry that the rescue package terms for Cyprus will set a precedent and ultimately become a blueprint for future bailouts. Cyprus is expected to finalise capital control actions on Wednesday following the country’s acceptance of the bailout conditions. During trading hours in Europe, the fell to $1.28175. German bonds were high due to the uncertainty surrounding the details of the Cypriot bailout. Investors have shown great dubiousness over the eurozone’s future and it’s unlikely that we will see massive euro rallies in the near future.

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The Finnish Euro Dance

The Finnish Euro Dance

News reports on Tuesday suggested that Finland, one of the few eurozone countries with a triple-A credit rating, was suspected of having been behind the unprecedentedly severe rescue package conditions for Cyprus. During past bailout negotiations, Finland wanted to establish itself as the responsible adult in the room. Unlike many southern European countries with mismanaged economies, Finland learned the lessons of its banking crisis and the subsequent recession 20 years ago.

Finland’s impatience in the face of sloppy fiscal policies prompted analysts to speculate about the country’s future in the eurozone. For instance, Nouriel Roubini, one of the most respected prognosticators of global economic trends, has argued that Finland will eventually be the first country to leave the single currency.

During the latest negotiations between IMF, EMU and Cyprus, Finland was reported to have been responsible for the levy tax obliging Cypriots to pay up to 10 per cent of their savings to foot the costs of the rescue package. Germany is often erroneously viewed as being uncompromising in its bailout demands, but in the eyes of Europe’s debt-ridden economies, Finland is the bad cop in the room.

Yet, Finland has rarely succeeded in its demands as the Greek and Spanish bailouts showed. Tough posturing is meant for domestic consumption to keep the vociferous opposition at bay. The opposition argues - perhaps rightly so - that Finland is constantly paying for other countries mistakes.

The Finnish euro bailout dance usually starts with the Finance Minister Jutta Urpilainen and Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen rejecting reports that a given Mediterranean country is in need of a massive bailout. When the bailout becomes a reality, both Katainen and Urpilainen attempt to calm the public by proclaiming that Finland will not give a cent unless it receives loan guarantees. After it becomes clear that other eurozone countries do not subscribe to Finland’s demands, the bailout passes without guarantees and Urpilainen and Katainen stand in front of the Finnish media explaining that harmonious cooperation comes with an occasional responsibility to compromise.

Henry Clay once said that a good compromise leaves both sides unhappy. In Finland’s case, only the Finnish taxpayer is left unhappy.

If past bailouts are any indication, Cyprus will get its bailout, irrespective of Finland’s posturing. The northern European country can leave the euro and incur the wrath of the eurocrats or stay and continue its increasingly superfluous dance. Either of these choices will have serious consequences for Finland and the eurozone.

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Finland Behind Tough Bailout Terms?

Finland Behind Tough Bailout Terms?

News reports on Tuesday suggested that Finland, one of the few eurozone countries with a triple-A rating, was suspected to have been behind the unprecedentedly severe rescue package conditions for Cyprus.

During past bailout negotiations, Finland wanted - perhaps rightly so - to establish itself as the responsible adult in the room. Unlike many southern European states with mismanaged economies, Finland learned the lessons of its banking crisis and the subsequent recession 20 years ago.

Finland’s impatience in the face of sloppy fiscal policies prompted analysts to speculate about the country’s future in the eurozone. For instance, Nouriel Roubini, one of the most respected prognosticators of global economic trends, has often argued that Finland will eventually be the first country to leave the single currency. However, it should be remembered that Finland has also benefited from the euro, mainly in terms of paying lower interest on debt which significantly benefits Finnish companies.

Nevertheless, Finnish opposition to the euro is rapidly growing. Finns feel that they are constantly paying for other countries mistakes. Germany is often viewed as the most uncompromising in its bailout demands, but if recent reports are any indication, Finland is the bad cop in the eyes of Europe’s debt-ridden economies.

During the latest negotiations between IMF, EMU and Cyprus, Finland was reported to have been responsible for the levy tax obliging Cypriots to pay up to 10 per cent of their savings to foot the costs of the rescue package. However, Finland has rarely succeeded in its demands as the Greek and Spanish bailouts showed. Tough posturing is meant for domestic consumption to keep the critics at bay. The Finnish euro bailout dance usually starts with the finance minister Jutta Urpilainen and prime minister Jyrki Katainen rejecting reports that a given Mediterranean country is in need of a massive bailout. When the bailout becomes a reality, both Katainen and Urpilainen calm the public that Finland will not give a cent unless it received guarantees. After it becomes clear that other eurozone countries do not subscribe to Finland’s line of thought, the bailout passes without guarantees and Urpilainen and Katainen stand in front of the the Finnish media explaining that cooperation comes with a responsibility to compromise.

Henry James once said that a good compromise is reached when both sides are unhappy. In Finland’s bailout dance, only the Finnish tax payer is left unhappy.

The euro might very well survive the possible departure of Cyprus from the eurozone, but if Finland departs, all bets are off.

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Nokia Bouncing Back

Nokia Bouncing Back?

The heavily criticized Nokia CEO, Stephen Elop has been able to turn the ailing mobile giant’s luck with well-timed and executed changes, and on Friday the hard work paid off as Nokia’s share jumped 18 percent in the Helsinki stock exchange signaling a shift that might restore the company’s status as a market maker after several years of decline.

After massive layouts last June, I wrote a piece predicting a gloomy future for the Finnish flagship. Astonishingly, there are real signs that Nokia is bouncing back. The world of technology coupled with top-notch marketing can work wonders and usually the Finns, who excel in producing quality products, but fail in marketing, seem to have managed to persuade the younger generations that Nokia is still hip and not just a phone for toddlers to play with and geriatrics to step on.
A report at forbes.com makes the argument that Apple is no longer the gadget of choice for teenagers.

“The signs that youngest smartphone audience has cooled on Apple have been steadily accumulating over the past few months. Apple, for instance, dropped several spots or remained flat on several teen brand opinion polls, including marketing agency’s Smarty Pants’ Young Love survey. And while 67% of affluent teens still say they intend to purchase an iPhone as their next upgrade, reports Piper Jaffray, Samsung pulls in second with a strong 22%. Perhaps more importantly is the fact that it was unthinkable a mere 12 months ago that any teen would prefer any phone to an iPhone if given the option,” Forbes’ Larissa Faw wrote.

Although the mobile phone market is no longer a game of only a few players, Nokia will face tough competition from constantly improving Samsung and even ailing HTC and RIM, but perhaps Apple’s downfall is Nokia’s silver lining.

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The Euro

The Euro Is Here To Stay

The current British foreign minister William Hague once described the euro as a burning building with no exits. Hague’s words still sound prophetic even though the eurozone’s house of cards is still standing. Perhaps the biggest flaw in the monetary union is the political union which preceded it and ultimately became a hindrance. For the euro visionaries, the political harmony and stability of the continent comprised the underlying drive for all the unions that followed; a cause célèbre for the generation that witnessed the horrors of World War II.

The idea to impose standardised monetary rules and regulations on European countries that are fundamentally different in terms of policy, efficiency, nature of workforce, purchasing power and other variables, has proven to be difficult and probably impossible.

Whether technocrats like Mario Monti or idealists like Francois Hollande, Europe will suffer from a self-imposed straight jacket which is also partly to blame for the sheer anarchy in Greece. The economists and policy makers in Europe have failed to grasp that culture determines a country’s success. Greeks are not Finns and certainly not Germans. Treating the south as north works on paper and in the numerous memos circulated in Brussels, but putting lipstick on a pig doesn’t change the fact that at the end of the day the pig is still a pig.

The euro will survive because European policy makers want it to survive. The euro has remained stable for the past years due to political will. However, investors should remember that the euro is the tail wagging the dog.

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