Tag Archives: european stocks

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U.S. Consumers Most Confident Since 2007

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:

Main Trading Event Of The Day: U.S. FOMC Statement @ 18.00 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

U.S. Consumers Most Confident Since 2007

Americans are more confident now about the economy than at any other time in the past seven years, according to the latest Conference Board survey. The consumer confidence index jumped to 90.9 in July from a revised 86.4 in June, the highest level since October 2007. Expectations had been for the index to slip to 85.0. Consumers are feeling more optimistic because of improved economic growth and a sharp upturn in hiring. Gross domestic product likely grew at a 3.2% pace in the spring after a 2.9% contraction in the first quarter according to projections. The preliminary GDP report will be issued Wednesday. The U.S. had also added at least 200,000 jobs a month for five straight months, one of the best stretches of hiring since the recession ended in mid-2009. Analysts predict another 200,000-plus gain for June when the monthly employment report is released on Friday. The improvement in consumer confidence suggests the recent strengthening in growth is likely to continue into the second half of this year and most economists predict the U.S. will expand by more than 3% in both the third and fourth quarters.

Consumers are still not as optimistic as they were in the years leading up to the 2007-2009 downturn when the consumer-confidence index averaged 103.4 in the seven years prior to the Great Recession. Nonetheless, confidence has rebounded sharply from a recession low of 25.3 in February 2009 which marked the lowest level ever in the history of the index dating to its origin in 1967.

Consumer Confidence

Gold Dips Below $1,300 As Economic Data Eyed

Gold traded below $1,300 an ounce on today as investors nervously awaited the end of a Federal Reserve policy meeting to gauge the U.S. central bank’s view on the economy and monetary policy. The metal was pressured by the U.S. dollar, which held near a six-month high against a basket of major currencies on expectations of a hawkish tone from the Fed. Investors were reluctant to take big positions ahead of major U.S. economic data this week, including GDP on Wednesday and non-farm payrolls on Friday. Spot gold was flat at $1,299.54 an ounce after slipping 0.5 percent and breaking below the key $1,300 level in the previous session. Analysts saw little to support prices should the upcoming economic data give further confirmation that a recovery is underway. Recent strong economic data has prompted many to believe the U.S. central bank may raise rates sooner than expected. Higher rates would encourage investors to withdraw money from non-interest-bearing assets such as gold.

gold

Europe Stocks Seen Lower Following Russia Sanctions

European shares are set for a lower open today after the United States and European Union expanded sanctions against Russia. The FTSE is called down 2 points at 6,805 while the German Dax is seen lower by 18 points at 9,635. The new sanctions drew increasing attention to an escalating geopolitical crisis which capped gains on Wall Street Tuesday. President Barack Obama said the United States was expanding on measures announced two weeks ago, targeting Russian energy, defense and financial sectors as Russia has continued to support separatists in eastern Ukraine, and was still building up forces on its own border with Ukraine. The sanctions are the toughest since the end of the cold war and come ahead of ahead of key risk events in the United States today and will put the ruble under severe pressure.

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U.S. Jobless Claims Likely To Remain Low

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:

Main Trading Event Of The Day: U.S. Unemployment Claims @ 12.30 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

Jobless Claims Likely To Remain Low Reflecting Improved Labour Market

The U.S. economy is adding jobs at the fastest pace in years and layoffs remain extremely low so the latest weekly report on jobless claims is unlikely to show any deviation in those trends. Economists are projecting initial claims will rise to 320,000 in the seven days ended July 5 from 315,000 in the prior week. The number of people filing new applications for unemployment benefits each week has ranged between 298,000 and 327,000 since early May, keeping claims at or near a post-recession low. It is worth bearing in mind that the claims figures for July can, however, be tricky to evaluate since it’s one of the most volatile months of the year. The July 4 holiday can also skew the report while some major manufacturers such as car makers often retool plants in midsummer. The retooling sometimes leads to a temporary bump in applications for benefits, though auto makers may be less inclined to shut down this year amid surging demand for new vehicles.

U.S. Unemployment Claims today @ 12.30 GMT.

Europe Stocks Higher On Fed Meeting Minutes

European stocks are expected to open higher today after traders were reassured that the U.S. Federal Reserve will move slowly to raise interest rates. The FTSE is expected to open 4 points higher, the DAX 16 points higher and the CAC 40 up 5 points. The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee suggested its asset-buying program, also known as quantitative easing, will likely end in October. U.S. markets showed measured reaction to the news, with stocks adding to modest gains and government bond yields slightly lower after the two-year note momentarily touched a three-year high. In Asia, stocks traded mixed following weak Chinese trade data. Exports rose 7.2 percent on year, missing estimates for a 10.6 percent increase. Imports rose 5.5 percent, against expectations for a 5.8 percent increase, leaving the country with a $31.6 billion trade surplus. The Bank of England is also scheduled to release its latest monetary policy decision today and is expected to leave rates on hold at a record low of 0.5 percent.

The New Zealand Dollar Continues To Shine

The NZD was trading around $0.8820 today, just short of its post float all-time high of $0.8842 hit on August 1 2011, boosted by the move by credit rating agency Fitch to reaffirm the country’s AA rating and upgrade its outlook to positive from stable on Tuesday. The NZD has been on fire since mid-2013 and looks unstoppable according to analysts. As one of the only two currencies with any appreciable yield in the advanced industrialised world, the kiwi has been the darling of the yield chasers and the upgrade by Fitch will only serve to reinforce its strength. New Zealand raised interest rates three times this year to reach 3.25 percent. It is the only developed economy tightening monetary policy. Many analysts expect a fourth rate hike this month, and the central bank pledged earlier this year to raise rates by 225 basis points over the next two years. The country’s hawkish monetary policy and strong economic fundamentals helped fuel its 14 percent rise against the dollar since mid-last year, while investors’ hunger for high yielding currencies also contributed to strength. Although some analysts flagged the possibility that currency strength could make New Zealand’s exports less attractive, most agree that the bank is unlikely to change course on its monetary policy. Much of the strength in the kiwi comes from the low volatility, yield seeking environment.

nzd

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U.S: Markets Watch for Faster Interest Rate Increases

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:

Main Trading Event Of The Day: U.S. FOMC Economic Projections @ 18.00 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

U.S Fed Economic Projections: Markets Watch for Faster Interest Rate Increases

The largest increase in core consumer inflation in almost three years has added fuel to market speculation that it will move faster to raise interest rates. The consumer price index climbed 0.4 percent in May from a month earlier, higher than expected and the biggest increase since February 2013. The annual increase was 2.1 percent, following April’s 2 percent year over year gain. Core CPI was up 0.3 percent, the biggest increase since August 2011. It is widely expected the Fed will announce that it will continue paring back its bond-buying program by another $10 billion, while emphasising that it sees the economy improving, but not sufficiently enough. Even if the Fed gives inflation a nod, the CPI is not its choice metric. While CPI has climbed over the Fed’s target of 2 percent inflation, the Fed also watches the PCE, the personal consumption expenditures price index.

Fed officials are also expected to cut their forecast for GDP, after a negative reading on first quarter GDP and their views of the unemployment rate, which was forecast at 6.1 to 6.3 percent by the fourth quarter, as it is already at 6.3 percent. This has led to the speculation the Fed could also show that the views of some officials have changed on when it will raise the Fed funds rate for the first time. Currently, the market believes the first move will be later in 2015, but expectations could change to earlier in the year if individual officials change their forecasts, and that could create volatility. U.S. FOMC Economic Projections today @ 18.00 GMT.

Fed

Shares Set To Rise As All Eyes On The Fed

European stocks were seen nudging higher on Wednesday, reflecting gains on Wall Street, although the rise was seen limited as investors wait for the U.S. Federal Reserve to conclude its policy meeting. The Fed is expected to cut another $10 billion from its monthly bond purchases, while investors will be watching for any comments on when the Fed would begin to raise interest rates and its outlook for the economy. Data released on Tuesday showed a surprisingly high reading for U.S. inflation, which sparked speculation of a hawkish tilt to the Fed’s policy outlook. Market watchers expect Britain’s FTSE 100 to open 12 points higher, or up 0.2 percent and Germany’s DAX to open around 17 points higher, or up 0.2 percent.

Disappointing Trade Data Casts A Shadow Over Japan

Official data reveals that Japan’s exports and imports declined in May, fuelling concerns about the outlook for the world’s third biggest economy, as it weathers an increase in the country’s consumption tax. May exports fell 2.7 percent from a year earlier, the first annual decline in 15 months, much worse than analyst expectations. Imports fell 3.6 percent on-year, compared with expectations for a 1.7 percent rise, bringing the trade balance to a deficit of 909 billion yen ($8.9 billion) in May. It remains to be seen whether Abenomics, the term used by analysts and commenters use to describe the economic policies of Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, can stimulate domestic spending sufficiently to offset weak export demand. Part of that policy has been huge monetary stimulus to help weaken the yen and end deflation. Although the yen weakened about 22 percent against the dollar in 2013, its impact on exports has faded while the currency has strengthened almost 3 percent this year. The breakdown of the trade data showed that exports to Asia and the U.S. fell in May.

Japan raised its consumption tax in April for the first time in 17 years, with the tax rising to 8 percent from 5 percent. While consumers stepped up their spending ahead of the tax hike a slowdown in consumption after that is now weighing on economic activity. Japan’s markets showed little immediate reaction to the trade data. The benchmark Nikkei stock index rose 0.3 percent in early trade while the yen was little changed around 102.2 per dollar.

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European Stocks Up On Supportive Fed & China Data

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:

Main Trading Event Of The Day: U.S. Unemployment Claims @ 12.30 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

European Stocks Up On Supportive Fed & China Data; Jobless Claims Data Awaited

European stocks were seen to be edging higher today, boosted by expectations that the Federal Reserve would continue to support the U.S. economy and by data showing an increase in Chinese factory activity. Britain’s FTSE 100 was expected to open 14 to 16 points higher, or as much as 0.2 percent and Germany’s DAX to open 32 to 33 points higher, or 0.3 percent. Global shares rose overnight after minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s last meeting reassured investors that policy makers would stick to their easy monetary policy stance. While Fed staff presented several approaches to raising short-term interest rates, they said the discussion was simply prudent planning and not a sign rate hikes would come any time soon. The Fed is unlikely to spoil the recovery while inflation is low and underemployment is high. Sentiment on risk assets was further boosted by China’s factory sector which showed its best performance in five months in May, confounding some of the more bearish on the world’s second-biggest economy and top consumer of metals.

Meanwhile, U.S Unemployment Claims data is awaited today. Initial claims for U.S. unemployment benefits hit a seven-year low of 297,000 claims last week, confirming the strong recovery in the US economy. Claims fell 24,000 from the preceding week, indicating stronger economic growth in the second quarter. Stronger labour market and rising inflation pressures give the green light to the Fed’s ongoing tapering move. Jobless claims are expected to increase to 312,000.

Euro stocks

UK Retail Sales Rise Much More Than Expected

British retail sales rose much more strongly than expected in April helped by robust food sales during the Easter holiday. Retail sales volumes jumped 1.3 percent on the month to show 6.9 percent growth on the year - its highest annual growth rate since May 2004. Economists had expected retail sales to rise 0.5 percent on the month and for sales to be up 5.2 percent compared with April last year. Sales for March were also revised up significantly. Britain’s consumers have been the main driver of the country’s economic recovery which began last year. A fall in inflation and signs of higher wages have helped restore some of the spending power lost in the years after the financial crisis. The turnaround in the housing market has also given home-owners more confidence to spend.

And The World’s Biggest Brand Is Now….

Google has leap-frogged over Apple to take the top spot in a global ranking measuring the value of the world’s biggest brands. Google saw a 40 percent year-on-year increase and is now worth to $159 billion making it top of the world’s most valuable global brands according to a recent report. Google has been hugely innovative in the last year with Google Glass, investments in artificial intelligence and a multitude of partnerships. Apple was knocked off the top spot after three years as the world’s number one, after its brand’s value fell 20 percent to $148 billion. A perception the Silicon Valley giant no longer redefines technology for its customers, as evidenced by a lack of new product launches, was behind the dip, according to the report. However, the fact Google and Apple took first and second place reflects technology brands’ growing dominance. The top four most valuable brands Google, Apple, IBM and Microsoft, all belonged to technology companies. The average technology brand is worth $45.9 billion, sitting way above the average brand value of £24.9 billion. The Top 100 have a combined value of $2.9 trillion and have increased by 49 percent since 2008. Their resurgence is a reflection of global growth which followed the end of the 2007 financial crisis.

google

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Euro Steadies After Falling On Dovish Draghi Comments

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:

Main Trading Event Of The Day: GB Manufacturing Production m/m @ 08.30 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

Euro Steadies After Falling On Dovish Draghi Comments

The euro struggled to gain traction today after dovish comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi sent the currency tumbling from a 2-1/2 year high. The Euro held steady at $1.3839, having pulled back from a peak of $1.3995 on Thursday, the highest since October 2011. Draghi said the euro’s strength was “a serious concern” and that the ECB bank might act to stem falling inflation at its June meeting, signaling possible easing. Before Draghi’s comments, the single currency had surged after the ECB on Thursday kept monetary policy unchanged as expected. Traders say the ECB, which has focused on the euro’s strength in the past few weeks, gets uneasy when the euro rises towards $1.40. A Reuters poll on Wednesday showed most economists expect ECB action if the euro hits $1.42.

The dollar was little changed at 101.70 yen, still not very far from a three-week low of 101.43 yen set on Wednesday. For the week, the greenback is down 0.5 percent against the yen, weighed down by persistently dovish comments from the Federal Reserve and low U.S. Treasury yields. Simmering tensions in the Ukraine have also supported the safe-haven yen currency. The Australian dollar eased 0.1 percent to $0.9364, edging away from a three-week high of $0.9395 hit on Thursday, when it gained a lift from upbeat Australian and Chinese economic data.

Mario Draghi

European Stock-Index Futures Little Changed Amid Earnings

European stock-index futures were little changed, after the Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed yesterday to its highest level in more than six years, as investors weighed corporate earnings. U.S. index futures and Asian shares were also little changed. Futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 Index expiring in June declined 0.2 percent to 3,164 at 7:20 a.m. in London. Contracts on the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index fell 0.1 percent, while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures slipped less than 0.1 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1 percent. The Stoxx 600 climbed yesterday for the first time in five days, sending the benchmark gauge to its highest level since January 2008, after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi pledged to ease monetary policy next month if needed. Thirteen companies in the Stoxx 600 are reporting quarterly results today. Profits for companies on the Stoxx 600 will climb 8.3 percent this year on average, according to analysts’ estimates. The gauge is up 0.5 percent so far this week, poised for the fourth straight weekly gain.

Gold Steady On Ukraine Tensions But Poised For 2nd Weekly Drop

Gold prices were steady on Friday, supported by geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, but poised to post its second straight weekly decline as more strong U.S. data showed that the world’s largest economy was recovering well, supportive of the Federal Reserve’s stance to keep trimming monetary stimulus. Spot gold was little changed at $1,290.34 an ounce. The metal is down 0.7 percent for the week, its second straight weekly decline. Ukraine tensions have been behind much of gold’s 7 percent rise this year, but traders fear the gains would dissipate quickly once the situation is resolved and on the back of a U.S. economic recovery. Physical demand has also been muted despite the drop in prices, with many hoping that a stabilisation in prices would bring back buyers.

gold

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UK Retail Sales Show Easter Rebound

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:

Main Trading Event Of The Day: GBP Retail Sales m/m @ 08.30 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

As UK Retail Sales Show Easter Rebound, Will Carney Reconsider Policy?

UK retail sales is set for release early today. Data from the Confederation of British Industry shows that retail sales bounced back this month after a weak March, helped by sales from a later than usual Easter. With the current economic situation in the UK looking up, an upside surprise could raise expectations of policy tightening, and in turn, the strength of the sterling. Twelve months ago, the International Monetary Fund announced a UK growth forecast of 1.5% for 2014. At the beginning of this month, the IMF revised its estimate to 2.9% in 2014, making the UK the fastest growing economy in the G7. Data releases have compounded improving expectations, with production, trade balance and unemployment data all beating forecasts over the past two to three weeks, and the market is eagerly anticipating a potential near term interest rate hike. The latest MPC meeting minutes dampened these expectations somewhat, but if data continues to impress the BoE would likely have no choice than to consider some sort of policy tightening. For this reason, the market is watching the UK headline releases with a renewed focus.

uk retail sales

Asian Shares & U.S. Dollar Struggle As Ukraine Tensions Escalate

Asian stocks struggled today, with fears of an escalating Ukraine crisis overshadowing upbeat U.S. economic data and U.S. tech shares. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan erased early modest gains and fell 0.3 percent. Japan’s Nikkei stock on the other hand, added 0.5 percent in choppy trade, after opening solidly lower amid disappointment over a failed attempt to reach a U.S.-Japan trade pact. On Wall Street overnight, stocks managed to shrug off the rising Ukraine tensions after Apple and Facebook posted upbeat results on Wednesday and U.S. economic data suggested that growth picked up pace in the second quarter. While brighter U.S. stocks and upbeat data supported the greenback, it still fell against a basket of major currencies, with the dollar index edging down to 79.760. But the U.S. dollar took back some lost ground against the yen, adding about 0.1 percent to 102.42 yen, while the euro also rose 0.1 percent against its Japanese counterpart to 141.65 yen. Against the dollar, the euro was steady on the day at $1.3832, despite comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi repeating recent concerns about euro strength and the ECB’s willingness to launch a “broad-based asset purchase program” if low inflation become entrenched.

Facebook’s Success In Mobile Continues To Soar

Facebook reported on Wednesday that it had made $2.5 billion in revenue in the previous three months and that it now has almost half the world’s Internet population logging in at least once a month. More than a billion people access the site monthly via mobile devices. The company is also doing better than expected when it comes to making money from mobile ads. For now, at least, its mobile ad business seems immune to the seasonal shifts in its desktop ad sales. The growth of mobile advertising has been explosive. Traders take note!

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Fed Decision to Cut Stimulus Boosts European Stocks

The Federal Reserve’s decision earlier this month to begin tapering its economic stimulus boosted European shares for a second day, sending them well on their way from their biggest weekly advance since April. U.S. stock-index futures and Asian shares show little movement.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. advised buying shares of Telenet Group Holding NV sending the stock on 2.5 percent jump. BAE Sysptems Plc lost 3.6 percent following the announcement that the United Arab Emirates ended talks to purchase its combat planes.

“European equities are set to edge higher on the open,” wrote Jonathan Sudaria, a trader at Capital Spreads in London, in an e-mail. “The post FOMC rally still has some momentum but only a muted move higher is expected today.”

After the Fed announced on Wednesday that it would decrease the amount of its economic stimulus by $20 billion, the Stoxx 600 gained 1.7 percent yesterday, recording its greatest two-day gain since June.

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Markets Recover After Cyprus Deal

European Index Slips on Fed’s Signs of Strength

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index will clip a monthly increase with European stock-index futures falling, as investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve may start scaling back its monetary stimulus sooner than expected. U.S. index futures and Asian shares also fell.

Futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 Index expiring in December dropped 0.3 percent to 3,023 at 7:17 a.m. in London. The Stoxx 600, the broader region-wide benchmark, has increased 3.3 percent in October, gaining for the second consecutive month. Contracts on the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index lost 0.2 percent today. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures slid 0.3 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.8 percent.

The Federal Open Market Committee announced yesterday that it would maintain its $85 billion in monthly bond purchasing, but talked of signs of underlying strength of the need to wait to see more evidence of sustained improvement.

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