Tag Archives: Economy

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Thailand’s Battle For Survival

Whilst Thailand is no stranger to protests, thousands of protesters blockaded main roads across Bangkok last week in the latest of a series of demonstrations. Now in their third month, this has led to fears about the stability of south-east Asia’s second largest economy. Thailand has experienced nine coups and more than 20 prime ministers since 1946 and has a history of mild political unrest over the last decade, but indicators are suggesting that the current demonstrations are not the same as those in the past, both politically and economically. With no end to the protests in sight, Oren Laurent takes a look at why things are different this time around, the effects on the country’s growth and whether the economy will be able to pick-up pace once again. Read more..

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Aussie Dollar Rising Against Central Bank’s Efforts

Australian bankers are beginning to find attention on their dollar uncomfortably high as it foils their attempts at lessening the currency’s strength.

Central banks around the world have shown increased interest in adding the currency from down-under to their reserve funds. Westpac Banking Corp., the second-largest Australian bond underwriter reported that its interaction with central banks has tripled, reaching over 60 nations in the past three yeas. In fact, more that a quarter of the 2033 Australian Commonwealth bonds were bought by central bank in an unprecedented sale last week, according to statements by the Australian funding arm on 20th November.

In a statement on 21st of November, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens attributed the Aussie dollar’s rising strength to the search for higher profits and the country’s AAA status, saying that would not “eschew” a monetary intervention if necessary.

The most recent addition of the Australian dollar to reserve currencies comes from the South African central Bank this month. Australian bonds, on the other hand, have been rated as the second-worst-performing in a list of sovereign markets monitored by indices of the Financial Analysts Societies of the European Federation and Bloomberg, having cost investors dealing in U.S. dollars a 12.6 percent loss this year.

The global head of fixed income at Westpac, Michael Correa, said on 21st November that “there is a perception of Australia being part of the reserve currencies or part of a core portfolio. The central banks’ participation in ACGBs will be a long-term participation. I don’t see them going away.”

And it’s not just their currency their after. According to Correa, central banks everywhere have also been eyeing other excellent Australian debt-securities.

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Is The Euro Doomed?

Has the euro been a disaster, or what? It seems pretty self-evident that it has been. Unemployment is 27.6 percent in Greece, 26.2 percent in Spain, 16.5 percent in Portugal, and 13.6 percent in Ireland, which, remember, is supposed to be the austerity success story. What’s happened? Well, exactly what euro-skeptics feared would happen from the time the common currency was just an idea: a shock hit some parts of Europe worse than others, and there hasn’t been any easy way to adjust. The ECB’s one-size-fits-Germany policy has left crisis countries no choice but to try to pay-cut their way to prosperity which would be painful enough if it were even possible. But it’s really not when interest rates are all but at zero. The euro has turned a recession into a depression. Countries can’t devalue their currency or cut interest rates or even run bigger deficits when they get into trouble, so their trouble gets worse. It goes against all intuition that a less flexible monetary would work as well as a more flexible one during a global financial crisis….and against all evidence too. Fixed exchange rates work until they don’t. But when they don’t, they really don’t, like the Great Depression ‘don’t’! So it would be strange to say the gold standard had worked as well as other monetary regimes if you just disregard the 1930s. It’s equally strange to say fixed exchange rates are working today if you just disregard the countries where they aren’t. Because there are plenty of those. Half a continent of them, in fact!

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Dutch Economy Growing Weaker

With signs that the Dutch economy is growing weaker, faith in the government is sinking to an all-time low and the Netherlands is still struggling post-recession as other Eurozone countries are finally starting to enjoy positive economic signals. Here is an analytical view of the Dutch economy and the measures that must be taken to stimulate the economy. Read more…

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Is The End Of The Recession In Sight As Spain’s Pain Turns To Gain?

Spain’s central bank reported on Wednesday that a two-year recession in the euro zone’s fourth-largest economy ended in the third quarter when Spain posted 0.1% growth from the previous quarter, in line with government projections. A return to growth for the currency area’s fourth-largest member is likely to feed hopes that the euro zone’s economy is finally emerging from a three-year crisis that was triggered by doubts about the soundness of its bank, and rising levels of government debt. The turnaround in Spain will add to expectations that the euro zone’s economy grew again in the three months to September, having expanded in the second quarter following 18 months of contraction. A survey of consumers in the currency area released Wednesday pointed to a continued pickup in confidence, which should support spending by households in coming months. The rise in Spanish gross domestic product after more than two years of contraction marks a turning point in the euro-zone crisis and is another sign that the Euro zone is doing the right things to come out of recession. It is however, a long, hard road and that all-familiar saying springs to mind…there’s no gain without pain!

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US Job Growth: September report may be last clean gauge of the job market…

U.S. job growth is likely to have picked up a touch in September, suggesting the economy enjoyed rising momentum before an acrimonious budget fight in Washington took some of the wind out of its sails. Non-farm payrolls are expected to have increased by 180,000 workers, a step up from August’s gain of 169,000, according to a Reuters survey of economists. The unemployment rate is seen having held steady at a near five-year low of 7.3 percent. The Labor Department releases its closely watched monthly employment report today, more than two weeks later than originally scheduled because of the partial shutdown of the federal government earlier this month. The data regularly sets the tone for global financial markets. Economists, however, said the shutdown has lessened its importance, with officials at the Federal Reserve likely to hold off any decision on scaling back the U.S. central bank’s bond buying until the extent of the economic damage from the budget fight is clearer. The September report may be the last clean gauge of the job market before most short-term effects or longer-run damage from the budget battles hit U.S. employers and households. Meanwhile, the US economy ‘drifts on’ as the Fed is likely to hold off on scaling back economic stimulus until next year.

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No End in Sight for Eurozone Recession

No End in Sight for Eurozone Recession

The ailing Eurozone is now officially in its longest ever recession, once again prompting speculations about the single currency’s future. Signs of crisis are clearly visible as nine out of 17 eurozone nations are in recession with Francois Hollande’s France joining the list of economic underachievers.

The GDP of 17 eurozone countries shrank by 0.2 per cent in the beginning of 2013. The European powerhouse Germany only grew by 0.1 per cent in the first quarter while France’s economy shrank by 0.2 per cent for the second quarter in a row. The country’s unemployment rate is expected to rise from the current 10.6 per cent. President Hollande is now the most unpopular president in French history, even surpassing his predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy who was widely disliked.

The shoddy data was followed by Pew Research Centre’s report according to which public support for the European Union fell from 60 per cent to 45 per cent. Pew’s research confirmed the perilous situation of the European project which is already being buried in many European countries. For instance, Spain’s dire situation is likely to continue and even worsen while the austerity policies enacted by many nations do not seem to work or stimulate growth.

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Stocks Finish Strong in the US

Stocks Finish Strong in the US

All three major indices finished superbly by the end of trading on Friday and had one of the best weeks of the year overall. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq ascended substantially, will all three seeing increases between 2.1 and 2.8 per cent. Dow and Nasdaq were both nearing record highs on Thursday although there was no major facilitator to cause the soar. It seems that investors are expecting the stocks to reach new highs in the coming weeks and therefore continue to trust in the bull market’s sustainability. Friday’s momentary sell-off was due to worse-than-expected data, but did not impact hugely the largely successful week of strong performance by the three major indexes.

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Portugal, Ireland to Avoid Disaster

Portugal, Ireland to Avoid Disaster

Portugal and Ireland, two debt-ridden Eurozone economies will likely receive more time to repay their loans after a meeting between euro ministers in Dublin on Friday. The news was welcomed by both countries which have struggled tremendously with ailing recoveries after massive debt-crises. Both countries look to receive an additional seven years to pay back their debts and make a healthy and robust return to the financial markets.

The finance ministers would be wise to discuss the potentially catastrophic consequences of the bloated and bigger-than-expected Cyprus bailout package which could derail the small island nation and even lead to mass exodus. Such worries became more realistic after ti was rumored that Cyprus needs to cough up an additional 6 billion euros to cover the expenses thus increasing the total amount to 23 billion euros. The figure is higher than the size of the whole Cypriot economy.

 

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Bailout Friday

Bailout Friday

Eurozone ministers meet in Dublin on Friday to discuss Cyprus bailout and the possibility of extending rescue package repayment dates for Ireland and Portugal. The first item on the agenda is Cyprus as ministers are readying for heated deliberations over the bailout conditions in exchange for the 10bn euros from the Eurozone and the International Monetary Fund. Nicosia is eagerly waiting for the first payment of 75 million euros, due in May, to pay for public sector wages. Discussions in Dublin will also revolve around the recent estimate according to which the restructuring of Cypriot banks will throw the country into a deep recession for at least two years.

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