Tag Archives: ECB Press Conference

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ECB: Market-Watchers Look to Draghi for Clarity

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:

Main Trading Event Of The Day: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls @ 12.30 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

ECB: Market-Watchers Look to Draghi for Clarity

A month after the ECB president, Mario Draghi introduced a varying range of fixes for the euro area’s faltering recovery, market-watchers are in disagreement about how long interest rates will stay near zero and remain unclear on the details of plans to boost lending. Draghi may use today’s appearance in Frankfurt as an opportunity to clarify the situation. As the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England work their way out of crisis-era support for their economies, the ECB continues to steer against the risk of a relapse. Draghi’s guidance on how he expects rates to develop over the next two to four years, if he decides to give any, will be crucial in bolstering investors’ optimism that the worst is truly over, while reassuring them that protection won’t be removed before they’re ready.

The euro is currently trading below $1.37, roughly where it was when the ECB met on June 5 but down from over $1.39 before the ECB flagged the cut in May. The ECB is keeping a close eye on the euro to gauge its impact on already low inflation. Euro zone inflation stood at 0.5 percent in June, well below the ECB’s medium-term target of just under 2 percent. Should the outlook for inflation deteriorate, Mario Draghi has said that the ECB would consider quantitative easing to keep borrowing costs low and boost spending.

Mario Draghi

Asia Stocks Fall Along With Gold; Dollar Gains Before Data

Asian Stocks fell from a six-year high, while precious metals dropped as the U.S. dollar gained versus its major peers before today’s jobs reports and a euro-area monetary-policy decision. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.2 percent while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.1 percent. The Aussie slid 0.7 percent, trading at 93.78 U.S., cents after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said investors are underestimating the chance of currency losses. Oil in New York fell for a sixth day, its longest slump since May 2012. Australia’s currency also slid as the country’s central bank governor said it was overvalued. The Aussie is more than just a few cents overvalued and the risk of a significant fall is being underestimated according to Stevens.

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report comes after yesterday’s ADP data showed U.S. employment rose in June by the most since 2012, with more workers hired than economists projected. The European Central Bank meets today after enacting unprecedented stimulus last month, while in Asia, data on services industries is due.

jobs

Watch For Google’s Streaming Music Service…

With its Songza deal, Google could end up dominating other streaming music services if it becomes the default option on Android mobile devices due to Android’s dominance among mobile devices and Songza’s ability to curate and recommend new music to its users. Android devices make up nearly 62 percent of the U.S. market for smartphones, according to research as of May 2014. With the Songza move, Google pitches itself against Spotify, Pandora and Rdio as well as Apple, which acquired Beats Music and its streaming service, and Amazon, which recently launched a streaming music service for its Prime customers. The deal could be a win for Google’s advertising business. Keep an eye on Google stocks…

That sums up today’s highlights. It’s Non-Farm Payrolls day today so a busy day on the markets. Don’t forget you can stay regularly updated on events by visiting our Facebook, Twitter, Google+ and LinkedIn pages.

We hope you have a profitable day on the markets!

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ECB Set To Cut Rates Driving Banks Into Lending

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

ECB Set To Cut Rates Driving Banks Into Lending

The European Central Bank is set to impose negative interest rates on its overnight depositors, seeking to push banks into lending and to prevent the euro zone falling into deflation as experienced in Japan. At today’s meeting, ECB policymakers are also expected to launch a loan program for banks with strings attached to make sure the money actually gets out into the euro zone economy. Even though the risks are limited of the euro zone entering a spiral of falling prices, slowing growth and consumption, the ECB is increasingly concerned that continuously low inflation and weak bank lending could upset the recovery. The economy grew just 0.2 percent in the first quarter, and euro zone annual inflation unexpectedly slowed to 0.5 percent in May, putting additional pressure on the central bank to step in. A broad stimulus package may be in the making that is likely to consist of a cut in interest rates which would push the deposit rate for the first time into negative territory and the offer of longer-term loans linked to further lending. Large-scale asset purchases remain a distant prospect. Cutting the deposit rate below zero would see the ECB charge banks for parking their excess money at the central bank, a step it hopes will prompt them to lend out the money instead. The euro has fallen about 4 U.S. cents against the dollar since the ECB’s May meeting, hitting $1.3586 last Thursday. Before taking any decision, the Governing Council will look at the June update of its quarterly staff projections. In March, they showed it would take 2-1/2 years for inflation to get near the ECB’s target of below but close to 2 percent. A deteriorating outlook will be seen as triggering action although a move to deploy so-called quantitative easing remains some way off.

ECB IR Chart

Nikkei Touches Two-Month High. Is it Just The Start?

The Nikkei touched a two-month high this week, a sign of lessening concerns about Japan’s economy, according to analysts who remain bullish on Japanese stocks. Stocks powered higher on Thursday, to reach 15,141 soon after open, its highest level since April 3. Last year, plans to boost Japan’s economy through aggressive easing, fiscal stimulus and structural reform saw the Nikkei rise 55 percent, while the yen depreciated 21 percent against the U.S. dollar boosting exporter stocks. However, the Nikkei fell 8.2 percent during the first quarter of 2014 amid concerns about the impact of a consumption tax hike to 8 percent from 5 percent in April. Companies were afraid that Japan’s economy would lurch back into the dangerous deflationary spiral that the last tax hike prompted in the 1990s but the economy has proved resilient, and Japan’s core consumer prices jumped 3.2 per cent in April from a year earlier, the fastest gain since February 1991. Meanwhile, investors have also turned more positive on progress on structural reforms. This week Japan’s corporate tax rate was cut, one of the structural reforms investors were worried might not come to fruition. Japan’s corporate tax rate currently sits at around 35.6 percent, among the highest in industrialised nations. The release this week of a draft of the government’s growth strategy has also powered stocks higher.

WTI Falls for Second Day Amid Record U.S. Supply

West Texas Intermediate fell for a second day as crude stockpiles remained near record-high levels amid declining fuel demand in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Futures dropped as much as 0.4 percent in New York. Crude supplies shrank by 3.43 million barrels to 389.5 million last week. They were at 399.4 million through April 25, the most since the Energy Department’s statistical arm started publishing weekly data in 1982. There is still concern that the market is oversupplied. WTI for July delivery declined as much as 45 cents to $102.19 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $102.34. Brent for July settlement decreased as much as 40 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $108 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $5.98 to WTI.

Oil Stocks

That sums up today’s highlights! Keep checking in regularly via our social media channels for all the latest trading updates and news. We hope you have a profitable day on the markets.

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