Tag Archives: Crisis

Earth Elements

Commodities On Steepest Decline in Years

The prediction on low-performing commodities for the year already seem to be fulfilling themselves, as hedge funds rein in their bullish attitude by most in seven weeks. With China showing signs of slowed economic growth, commodity prices have reached an eight-month low on increased surpluses.

According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, 18 commodities traded on U.S. markets have dropped by 11 percent last week. Wheat appears to be affected the most, while investors have also turned bearish on corn, coffee, sugar, and soybean oil. On the contrary, gold prices rose to their highest levels since mid-November.

Since 31st December, the prices of raw materials have fallen 3.5 percent, marking the worst start to a year since 2007. December was the 22nd straight month of declines for Chinese producer prices, the longest drop since the financial crisis that hit Asia in the 1990s. The U.S. department of agriculture anticipates that wheat and soybean stockpiles around the world will be larger than analysts estimated.

Despite lowered Chinese demand, however, some commodities, such as copper, will fare on better prices with support coming in on improved U.S. and European economies.

MArio Draghi

Can Mario Draghi Celebrate Euro Victory Yet?

If there’s one man that can celebrate a fresh start in the new year, that certainly seems to be Mario Draghi.

The European Central Bank president had taken a bold stance during a London speech in July 2012 when he declared that he would do “whatever it takes” to save the Euro. Despite disbelief and opposition, even from within Euro-zone member states such as, most notably, Germany, Draghi seems to have proven himself good for his word.

The crisis that brought the purpose of the euro into questions and had many questioning its survival, appears to have been dissipated. Draghi has been praised even by some of his harshest critics, such as Nobel-laureate Paul Krugman and economist Nouriel Roubini for revitalizing the euro.

Krugman, in fact, admitted that “Draghi did the most of it,” and said it was “pretty clear that the ECB has been decisive in alleviating the European situation.”

So where can positive results be seen? Ireland put bonds for sale this week for the time after exiting the IMF’s support programme of three years. Portugal and maybe even Greece are expected to be able to follow suit soon enough. In Spain, moreover, yields on 10-year government debt fell the most since 2009. The Stoxx Euro 600 Index climbed to its highest peak in nearly five years, while the euro advanced the most against the dollar in nearly three years.

Reduced budget cuts and increased retail sales data this week seem to signal the beginning of the end for the longest recession in the short history of the euro. And just to prove wrong anyone who predicted that the euro would spit up now, Latvia joined the currency moving it from a 17- to an 18-nation shared currency.

Price of Gold

Gold Keeps Surging In 2013?

Most major banks predict that gold will go up in 2013. The Swiss bank UBS says gold will average $1900 per ounce followed by a more bullish prediction by the boys at Morgan Stanley who suggest that gold will average $2000 in 2013 and $2400 in 2014.

UBS and Morgan Stanley are not alone in their audacious forecasts.

Many analysts seem to be in the throes of a rush of gold to the head -type syndrome with very few exceptions. These exceptions are so few that I am not even able to provide one.

One simple reason for the high price of gold is the current economic climate. When all other assets fail, gold is usually the safe haven investors’ flock to. For example when the US credit rating was downgraded from AAA to AA+, many investors expressed their anxieties over currencies and stocks by buying gold.

In other words, fluctuations coupled with market uncertainty and nervousness of the investors means that the price of gold will rise as projected. Upheaval in the Middle East (Oil), Eurozone woes (EUR) and fear of looming bubbles (stocks) have led many to conclude that the only safe and steady asset is gold.