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Cocoa Set For A Sweet 2014

With 2014 upon us, and Christmas indulgencies out of the way (almost!) it’s interesting to look at some of the trends for the coming year. But as many of us reluctantly start cutting the calories, there’s one thing that’s hard for most of us to break – and that’s our chocolate habit! It may come as no surprise then that cocoa was the second-best performing commodity of 2013.

Cocoa closed out the year with gains of 26 percent, just one step behind the 27 percent rise of 2013 winner natural gas, on concerns of a global supply deficit and rising demand for the commodity that is used to make chocolate. The run-up in prices has been attributed to dry, unfavorable weather conditions for crop supply in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the largest cocoa growers in the world. While cocoa futures kicked off 2014 nearly 3 percent lower at a more than seven-week low due to replenished supply from West-African harvests, it seems that a structural change will fundamentally change the cocoa market this year.

Cote d’Ivoire farmers used to grow cocoa but now they find that it’s better to grow palm oil and rubber instead, as they provide a more predictable source of income throughout the year whereas cocoa only provides income when you get a harvest. It is expected that the trend of reduced output, combined with robust consumption will pave the way for solid cocoa gains this year. Worldwide chocolate sales are expected to gain 2 percent in 2014, with Asian demand for confectionery expected to outperform global demand by an annual 5 percent, according to market research firm Euromonitor. Current, elevated cocoa-butter-ratios reflect strong consumption trends in North American, Asian and European markets. Meanwhile, the International Cocoa Organisation said that it expects demand to exceed production by 70,000 metric tons for the season that began in October.

On a consumer level, where price comparisons form the basis of much decision-making amongst households, chocolate seems to be in a class of its own. How many of us check the price of our favourite chocolate bar before parting with our money?! No doubt our cravings to satisfy our ‘sweet tooth’ have helped contribute to the increasing demand for cocoa across the world, which leads us onto another commodity – sugar, but we’ll leave that one for another time!

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ChocolateGold

Chocolate Turning Gold?

Asian countries have been developing a chocolate habit that will create the longest shortfall in over fifty years.

It it predicted that cocoa consumption will outstrip production by about 70,000 metric tons in the 12 months that began on 1st October and the deficits will continue through 2018. According to Laurent Pipitone, the head of statistics at the International Cocoa Organisation in London, the six-year long deficit would be the longest one since collection of data began in 1960. By the end of 2014 prices may gain as much as 15 percent to $3,200 a ton, according the median estimates of 14 traders surveyed by Bloomberg.

Sales of confectionery chocolate around the world are expected to increase by 2.1 percent to a record 7.3 million tons next year, following a 2 percent increase in 2013, according to Euromonitor International Ltd. Chinese sales more than doubled over the last decade, growing at a higher pace than Western Europe gains. Chocolate makers such as Nestle SA, Barry Callebaut AG and Lindt & Spruengi AG will be faced with higher costs too on account of lower supplies.

Cocoa has already climbed 24 percent this year to $2,771 a ton on ICE Futures U.S. New York, marking the second-greatest advance among the 24 commodities monitored by the Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge, which had an overall drop of 3.4 percent.

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