Tag Archives: central bank

Oil Barrels old

Should Banks Be Trading Commodities? The Fed Reconsiders

Concerns over potential interest conflicts and market manipulation form the Congress has led the Federal Reserve to a consideration of further restrictions on the trading and storing of physical commodities by banks.

In a meeting yesterday the Fed posed 24 questions for discussion to its members, including some on the dangers of trading and owning commodities (such as oil, gas, and alumunium) by banks who deal with deposits and the potential advantages of imposing more capital standards.

“There has been a substantial increase since 2008 in the amount and types of commodities activities conducted by the firms we supervise,” says the testimony prepared by the Fed’s director of bank supervision, Michael Gibson, for a hearing by a Senate subcommittee today. “Moreover, recent catastrophic events involving physical commodities have increased concerns regarding the ability of companies to mitigate potentially extraordinary tail and other risks.”

The Fed stated it is examining the possibility of further restrictions in order to ensure that bank activities concerning physical commodities are carried out in safe and sound procedures. The central bank on its part said it will look into whether additional rules are needed once the public comment period comes to an end on 15th March.

A list of recent accidents and natural disasters, such as the 2010 explosion at Deepwater Horizon’s drilling rig that cost BP Plc over $42 billion by the end of 2012, have been cited by the Fed as instances of catastrophic occurrences that pose great risks to expose institutions.

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Central Bankers Gone Wild?

The ripple effect of the 16-day U.S. government shutdown that made headlines around the world earlier this month has now started to make waves across the planet, showing the real weight of the dollar in the global economic pool.

Earlier this week the Bank of Canada spoke about the need of future interest-rate increase, avoiding the language it used in earlier decision concerning ‘gradual normalisation’, while the central banks of Norway, Sweden, and the Philippines decided yesterday to postpone raising their interest rates further into the future as well. The announcements bolster the Federal Reserves’ plan to delay the withdrawal of its stimulus plan until well into next year. But it is not just the big players who join the movement: from Hungary to Chile, emerging markets around the world have cut interest rates in the past two months.

With inflation and job growth in the industrial world stubbornly refusing to climb to higher levels and a weakening in developing nations, policy makers continue their path of monetary easing in an attempt to jolt global growth from its stagnant position. If recent economic history has taught us anything, however, it is that stimulus creates asset bubbles that play havoc on the markets when they finally burst. And the current bubble has already been inflated by drastic home-price increases across the globe and the MCSI World Index of developed-world stock markets dangerously inching towards its highest level since 2007.

Some economists warn that the current conditions of central bankers pumping liquidity into the markets and promising to keep interest rates down are not normal. Yet, such has been the environment for five years now, as monetary authorities have sought to protect global economy from deflation and have turned to quantitative easing as a means to expedite its recovery. But to what cost?

The financial rewards have so far been limited. The International Monetary Fund this month has clipped its projections for global economic growth from 3.1 to 2.9 percent for 2013, and from 3.8 to 3.6 percent for 2014. It also expects most central banks across wealthy nations to favour lower inflation rates which already fall below the 2 percent average.

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