Tag Archives: bear market

morning-coffee

Is There An End In Sight To The Six-Year Bull Run?

Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:

Main Trading Event Of The Day: U.S. Unemployment Claims @ 12.30 GMT

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY

Is There An End In Sight To The Six-Year Bull Run?

Are stocks telling us that a bear market is coming? That’s the opinion of some analysts who point out that bear markets ‘start with a whimper or a bang’. When it starts with a bang, the first clue will be a major break in the market that no one can explain. That will eventually be followed by a correction at which point everyone will be aware that something bad has happened. Should this happen, indexes will fall by double digits, investors will panic, and stocks will nosedive. But when a bear market starts with a whimper, it confuses nearly everyone. A meandering, volatile market is frustrating. At first, bulls will be hopeful that the market will keep going up, but eventually, the market tops out and retreats. Typically, a market making new highs is a healthy sign. In a looming bear market, new highs on lower volume is a warning sign. Right now, the strongest case for the bulls is the Fed but in the history of the stock market, no institution has been able to prevent a bear market. What might cause the market to snap is not certain - it could be an economic event, a geopolitical crisis, or a spike in interest rates. If it happens, nearly everyone will realise the market is in trouble at which point everyone will attempt to sell at once. Is that crunch time getting closer? No one knows but some believe a bear market is inevitable sooner rather than later.

The U.S. stock market closed broadly lower yesterday, as investors turned cautious amid a sell-off of small and high-growth companies. The benchmark S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated from record levels set on Tuesday. The S&P 500 finished 8.92 points, or 0.5% lower at 1,888.53. The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke its five-day winning streak and closed 101.47. points, or 0.6%, lower at 16,613.97. The Nasdaq Composite ended the day down 29.54 points, or 0.7%, at 4,100.63.

bear

Dollar Holds Losses Before Yellen Speaks Today

With Federal Reserve Janet Yellen due to speak later today and expectations that the central bank will maintain stimulatory policies, the U.S. dollar managed to hold losses against the majority of its 16 major peers after touching its lowest in almost a week versus the yen yesterday. Yellen told Congress last week the economy needs support. A report showed Japan’s gross domestic product expanded at the fastest pace in 2 1/2 years, damping bets for additional Bank of Japan easing. The euro remained higher versus the pound before figures that may indicate growth accelerated in the eurozone. The dollar slipped 0.1 percent to 101.83 yen after touching 101.66, the lowest level since May 9. It traded at $1.3718 per euro from $1.3715.

US Dollar

WTI Drops From Three-Week High; Brent Remains Steady

West Texas Intermediate slid from a three-week high after government data showed crude inventories expanded as production increased to a 28-year peak in the U.S. Brent was steady in London. Futures fell as much as 0.5 percent in New York, the first drop in four days. Crude stockpiles rose to a near-record last week as output climbed to the highest rate since 1986. WTI for June delivery declined as much as 47 cents to $101.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange reaching $102.11 at 3:15 p.m. Sydney time. The volume of all futures traded was about 19 percent below the 100-day average. Prices are up 3.8 percent this year. Brent for June settlement was 11 cents lower at $110.08 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

That sums up today’s highlights! Catch up on all the latest news on Facebook, Google+,Twitter and LinkedIn. We hope you have a profitable day on the markets.

 

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Just A Minute!

Welcome to Tuesday’s ‘Just A Minute’. Here’s a 60 second summary of some of the key market activities today:

  • Main trading events of the day: UK Construction PMI @ 09.30 GMT & U.S. Factory Orders @ 15:00 GMT
  • Stocks to watch: Buffalo Wild Wings Inc, Hillenbrand Inc & Sirius XM Holdings. Twitter & LinkedIn shares edge higher ahead of reports later this week.
  • Other trading news: Gold holds advance as concern that global growth may be faltering sends equity markets lower and boosts demand for haven assets.

What We’re Watching Today:

Market Watch: More Selling Ahead

The S&P 500 broke below an important trend line yesterday, and technicians are seeing more selling ahead. Whether this means the start of a bear market remains to be seen but at the very least, there’s going to be a very severe, very sustainable and really quite an ugly correction. The S&P 500 is down 5.7 percent since the start of the year, and it fell 2.3 percent Monday. The S&P ended the day at 1741, and selling accelerated when it broke through 1770, a level it tested and held last week. According to the Stock Trader’s Alamanc, “A bear market requires a 30 percent drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average after 50 calendar days or 13 percent decline after 145 calendar days. Reversals of 30 percent in the Value Line Geometric Index since 1965 also qualify.”

Eurozone:

Deflation fears: Will The ECB Pull The Trigger Again?

Another low inflation shock in the eurozone has increased the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to act, with some economists arguing that a rate cut could be announced as soon as this week. The focus will be on ECB President Mario Draghi this Thursday following the central bank’s policy meeting, with economists expecting him to act sooner rather than later. Concerns that the 18-nation currency bloc was headed for deflation were boosted further on Friday, when official data revealed that inflation fell to 0.7 percent in January – below the 0.9 percent expected by economists, and significantly lower than the ECB’s 2 percent target. Although the ECB remains in a wait-and-see mode, it is likely that it will be forced to act and this is only a question of time.

EU-Ukraine

Tech:

Investors Eye Microsoft Breakup

Microsoft’s new leadership could almost double the company’s valuation by parting with a good chunk of the businesses it uses to court consumers. Offloading units such as Xbox video-game consoles and the Bing search engine may be the change Microsoft needs to stimulate growth as it prepares to make Satya Nadella chief executive officer. Some analysts believe that Microsoft should go further by also splitting off Windows and smartphones to focus on providing services to business customers. Former CEO and co-founder Bill Gates is weighing giving up his title as chairman, but is likely to remain involved in product development. Stocks are cheap – keep an eye on them!

That sums up Tuesday’s highlights! We wish you a profitable trading week. Remember to keep in touch with us on Facebook, Google+ & Twitter for all the latest news, information, tips and more! Trade with the experts and become a superior trader!

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cotton field

China Hoards Cotton At Risk of Bear Market

China is stowing away an unprecedented amount of cotton in effort to aid farmers as global production exceeds demand for the fourth year in a row, risking tipping prices into a bear market as supply could suddenly surge.

It is expected that by July of next year, China will hold 12.7 million metric tons in inventory, equalling 62 percent of the global total, or enough to make 71 billion t-shirts, according to estimates by the U.S. Department of agriculture. Should the Chinese government decide to end its stockpiling programme the following season, as anticipated, cotton prices will fall 8.5 percent a pound in a year.

U.S. and Brazilian growers trimmed production in 2011 as prices dropped from a record $2.197, but farmers in China increased theirs as the state absorbed excess output. The government bought supply equal to 85 percent of domestic production last year and will import 2 million tons less this season. Cheaper cotton prices have already boosted margins for the Levi Strauss & Co., Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI) and other clothing companies.

Cotton slumped 18.6 percent to 75.95 cents a pound yesterday on ICE Futures U.S. in New York since hitting a 16-month closing high of 93.32 cents on 16th August, approaching the 2 percentage limit of a bear market. That trimmed this year’s advance to 1.1 percent as the Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities fell 5.6 percent. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities increased 17 percent and the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index lost 2.1 percent.

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