Here’s today’s ‘Just A Minute’ bringing you a 60 second summary of what’s happening in the financial markets:
Main Trading Event Of The Day: USD Core CPI @ 12.30 GMT
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING TODAY
Fed Expected To Raise Rates Faster Than Expected
Economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate faster than market expectations. Investors are assuming a slower pace of rate increases than the Fed itself, and may be overlooking recent reports showing the world’s largest economy is gaining strength after contracting in the first quarter. In March, officials predicted the fed funds rate, now between zero and 0.25 percent, would rise to 1 percent at the end of next year and 2.25 percent at the end of 2016. Fed officials may have underestimated the strength of the economy. Unemployment stood at 6.3 percent in May, at the top end of the range most officials forecast for the fourth quarter. Similarly, the personal consumption expenditures price index - the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, rose 1.6 percent for the 12 months ending April, a rate most officials expected at the end of the year. Officials will release a new set of quarterly forecasts for unemployment, inflation, economic growth and the benchmark federal funds rate at the conclusion of their meeting tomorrow.
The Tide Turns Against The Euro
The euro tumbled following monetary easing from the European Central Bank earlier this month and analysts anticipate further currency weakness. Market positioning data released on Friday showed that net short positions in the euro/dollar i.e. a bet on the euro falling, have risen to their highest level since late May 2013. Europe’s single currency has declined just over 3 percent from a 2 1/2 year high hit in early June, undermined by the ECB’s decision to impose a negative interest rate on banks for their deposits and cut its main lending rate in a bid to lift inflation and a weak economy. Currency analysts say the ECB’s monetary easing has fueled the use of the euro for carry trades - borrowing money in a currency that is backed by low interest rates to fund investments in higher-yielding assets. It seems, therefore, that the tide is turning against the once-resilient euro. Recent data shows that weekly market positioning data speculators have increased bullish bets on the greenback to their highest level in almost four months.
Iraq Violence Lifts Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal
Gold steadied below a three-week high on today as escalating tensions in Iraq attracted some safe-haven bids. Bullion initially rallied after the United States said it could launch air strikes to support the Iraqi government after a rampage by Sunni Islamist insurgents. Investors often turn to gold or other precious metals as a safe haven in times of political or financial uncertainty but so far this year, gold has failed to maintain gains despite heightened geopolitical tensions. Gold’s initial gains were also boosted by developments in Ukraine. Traders warned this Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting could bring caution to any rally in gold as markets watch for any signals on when the U.S. central bank might begin raising interest rates.
That sums up today’s highlights! Don’t forget to keep a check on all the market events of the day via our Facebook, Twitter, Google+, and LinkedIn. We hope you have a profitable day on the markets.
