Oil continued its upwards trend yesterday and closed above $95 a barrel after good news from building permits from the US which show an improvement in the housing market.
Unemployment claims rose by 2,000 following yesterday’s publication. However it seems that the housing market improvement has overtaken the slim rise in unemployment claims in terms of their effect on the markets.US indices are near their highest in years and optimism for further improvement in the economy has added future expectation demand for oil. Tomorrow will bring news about the trade balance in Europe.
DMR - August 16th 2012
Oil closed yesterday’s trading session at $94.33 a barrel, easily breaking its $94 resistance after CPI data from the US, industrial production data, and crude inventories. All supported the commodity’s up-trend.
Low CPI data allows for further easing to the US economy, high production figures make for more demand, and low inventories shorten supply, all activating the next resistance level of $95. Any break of that resistance could allow strong momentum towards $100 a barrel amid a very tense political environment from the Middle East.
Unemployment claims today alongside building permits will definitely affect future demand for oil and monetary ease expectations, while it seems that at least for the short term oil looks bullish.
DMR - August 15th 2012
Oil closed yesterday at $93.4 a barrel after rising almost 1% in a very positive trading session.
Its resistance level of $95 a barrel is very strong, and positive results from the market are not quite enough to allow for a break. Continuing tension from the Middle East will likely be the best challenge for this resistance and could even push the price of the commodity to a comfortable $100 per barrel.
Retail sales yesterday presented great support for oil’s upwards direction but it was still not enough for oil to cross the $94 a barrel. Investors are awaiting today’s industrial production results from the US, which could yet again challenge the resistance at $95.
DMR - August 14th 2012
Oil closed yesterday below $93 a barrel with strong support at $92 a barrel after some profit taking was experienced.
Analyst will be awaiting today’s announcements regarding European GDP and American retail results. Positive data would support oil’s price and challenge the resistance level of $95 a barrel. At the same time, any news accelerating tension from the Middle East would also support oil and loosen its resistance.
Data concerning investor confidence from Germany will also be announced today. European indices which are trading at highs not seen by the market since May are likely to influence future expectations for oil demand.
DMR - August 13th 2012
Oil closed Friday’s trading session above $93 a barrel despite the disappointing financial results from Europe, with French industrial production indicating zero growth.
Furthermore the unemployment rate in Canada grew to 7.3%. In the past Canada has shown resistance to the economic crisis felt globally and by its neighbor, the US. Now, analysts are taking an increased interest in Canadian data. The USD/CAD currency pair appreciated and oil declined after the monthly unemployment results, but both revised shortly later.